The model makes Palermo the title favourite, first in 51.3% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of Modena on 20.6% and Mantova on 6.3%. On expected points that is Palermo 70.7, Modena 64.9, Mantova 58.9. Two clubs finish in the top four more often than not: Palermo 88.4%, Modena 69.4%.
At the other end, Sampdoria carries the highest relegation risk at 61.1%, then Carrarese on 39.3% and Arezzo on 35.6%. The bottom club averages 38.8 points to Palermo's 70.7.
Right, so here's the deal. This simulation isn't a crystal ball showing you a single outcome. It's a spread, a range of what could happen if the season played out 20,000 times from this point. It gives you a feel for how much wriggle room each club has. Some clubs' fates are pretty set, others could swing wildly. But remember, it doesn't know about upcoming fixtures, injuries, or any of that real-world noise. It's blind to the chaos an actual season brings. Use it to gauge the landscape, to see which clubs have more or less wiggle room. But don't take it as gospel. It's a tool, not a prophet. Keep that in mind as you look at the numbers.
What has changed since August
The pre-season projection was run before a ball was kicked. 50 matches later, these are the clubs the model has most changed its mind about. Movement is in expected finishing position, which is measured against the rest of the division, so it reflects a changed view rather than simply games being played.
Rising
- Sudtirol up 6.7 places, expected points 41.7 to 54.1. 11 points from 5 games. Title chance up from 0.1% to 1.7%. Relegation risk down from 41.8% to 3.9%.
- Mantova up 6.0 places, expected points 48.2 to 58.9. 11 points from 5 games. Title chance up from 0.5% to 6.3%. Relegation risk down from 16.4% to 1.3%.
- Ascoli up 4.1 places, expected points 49.7 to 56.8. 10 points from 5 games. Title chance up from 0.7% to 3.4%. Relegation risk down from 11.2% to 2.0%.
- Avellino up 2.8 places, expected points 43.3 to 48.7. 7 points from 5 games. Relegation risk down from 34.5% to 15.7%.
- Modena up 2.4 places, expected points 59.9 to 64.9. 10 points from 5 games. Title chance up from 9.2% to 20.6%. Relegation risk down from 0.8% to 0.1%.
Falling
- Arezzo down 7.3 places, expected points 57.1 to 43.9. 6 points from 5 games. Title chance down from 5.0% to 0.1%. Relegation risk up from 2.0% to 35.6%.
- Vicenza Virtus down 6.8 places, expected points 57.1 to 44.7. 5 points from 5 games. Title chance down from 5.0% to 0.1%. Relegation risk up from 2.1% to 31.1%.
- Catanzaro down 4.6 places, expected points 62.1 to 52.8. 3 points from 5 games. Title chance down from 15.4% to 1.7%. Relegation risk up from 0.7% to 7.0%.
- Carrarese down 3.8 places, expected points 49.9 to 42.6. 1 points from 5 games. Relegation risk up from 11.5% to 39.3%.
- Cremonese down 3.1 places, expected points 62.9 to 56.0. 5 points from 5 games. Title chance down from 16.8% to 3.3%. Relegation risk up from 0.4% to 3.0%.
Compare with the full pre-season table, exactly as the model had it in August.
Every club, every finishing position
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 51.28 | 20.59 | 10.42 | 6.09 | 3.83 | 2.52 | 1.73 | 1.23 | 0.73 | 0.52 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 70.7 | ||
| Modena | 20.61 | 22.42 | 15.30 | 11.08 | 7.64 | 5.99 | 4.42 | 3.74 | 2.68 | 1.75 | 1.35 | 0.89 | 0.76 | 0.50 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 64.9 |
| Mantova | 6.29 | 10.85 | 11.11 | 10.77 | 9.63 | 8.62 | 7.27 | 6.58 | 5.58 | 4.90 | 4.18 | 3.64 | 2.90 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 1.02 | 0.70 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 58.9 |
| Pisa | 5.07 | 8.30 | 9.60 | 9.53 | 8.96 | 8.48 | 7.62 | 7.06 | 6.13 | 5.65 | 5.10 | 4.15 | 3.66 | 2.89 | 2.32 | 1.92 | 1.43 | 1.06 | 0.75 | 0.32 | 57.4 |
| Ascoli | 3.40 | 7.01 | 8.96 | 9.19 | 9.13 | 9.00 | 8.24 | 7.32 | 6.64 | 5.92 | 4.99 | 4.69 | 3.76 | 3.41 | 2.90 | 1.92 | 1.55 | 1.01 | 0.65 | 0.33 | 56.8 |
| Cremonese | 3.33 | 6.59 | 8.43 | 8.71 | 8.22 | 8.25 | 7.93 | 7.10 | 6.72 | 6.15 | 5.22 | 4.73 | 4.18 | 3.77 | 3.25 | 2.49 | 1.96 | 1.47 | 0.88 | 0.62 | 56.0 |
| Hellas Verona | 1.96 | 4.30 | 5.87 | 6.93 | 7.54 | 7.42 | 7.46 | 7.51 | 7.07 | 6.93 | 6.34 | 5.91 | 5.44 | 4.89 | 3.82 | 3.35 | 2.86 | 2.07 | 1.50 | 0.83 | 54.0 |
| Sudtirol | 1.69 | 4.01 | 5.70 | 6.79 | 7.41 | 7.66 | 7.60 | 7.55 | 7.31 | 7.05 | 6.53 | 6.06 | 5.40 | 4.88 | 4.29 | 3.64 | 2.57 | 1.92 | 1.31 | 0.64 | 54.1 |
| Empoli | 1.67 | 3.62 | 5.50 | 6.53 | 6.78 | 6.64 | 7.18 | 7.21 | 7.02 | 6.64 | 6.49 | 6.16 | 5.93 | 5.04 | 4.57 | 3.93 | 3.48 | 2.49 | 2.15 | 1.00 | 53.5 |
| Catanzaro | 1.73 | 3.54 | 4.95 | 5.94 | 6.62 | 6.67 | 6.39 | 6.86 | 6.65 | 6.72 | 6.24 | 6.33 | 5.62 | 5.49 | 5.01 | 4.57 | 3.69 | 3.11 | 2.51 | 1.37 | 52.8 |
| Benevento | 1.32 | 3.32 | 4.44 | 5.10 | 6.00 | 6.44 | 7.07 | 6.77 | 6.87 | 6.84 | 6.91 | 6.20 | 5.87 | 5.52 | 5.59 | 4.45 | 4.07 | 3.24 | 2.54 | 1.43 | 52.4 |
| Padova | 0.50 | 1.49 | 2.49 | 3.03 | 4.18 | 4.65 | 5.36 | 5.72 | 6.02 | 6.29 | 6.44 | 7.07 | 7.28 | 6.72 | 6.49 | 6.57 | 6.20 | 5.60 | 4.78 | 3.14 | 49.6 |
| Avellino | 0.42 | 1.23 | 2.05 | 2.84 | 3.27 | 3.99 | 4.93 | 5.10 | 5.96 | 6.07 | 6.50 | 6.90 | 7.04 | 7.40 | 6.95 | 6.96 | 6.72 | 6.30 | 5.46 | 3.90 | 48.7 |
| Virtus Entella | 0.24 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 1.74 | 2.67 | 3.16 | 3.65 | 4.39 | 5.24 | 5.33 | 6.56 | 6.51 | 7.05 | 7.57 | 7.67 | 8.22 | 8.06 | 7.62 | 6.82 | 5.29 | 47.1 |
| Cesena | 0.14 | 0.59 | 1.11 | 1.64 | 2.16 | 2.63 | 3.24 | 3.67 | 4.62 | 5.19 | 5.80 | 6.25 | 7.09 | 7.39 | 7.61 | 8.74 | 8.85 | 8.53 | 8.04 | 6.70 | 46.3 |
| Juve Stabia | 0.10 | 0.43 | 0.89 | 1.36 | 1.75 | 2.55 | 3.13 | 3.56 | 4.23 | 4.90 | 5.95 | 6.40 | 6.70 | 7.80 | 8.40 | 8.72 | 8.93 | 8.87 | 8.28 | 7.07 | 45.9 |
| Vicenza Virtus | 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.66 | 1.09 | 1.61 | 2.04 | 2.53 | 3.19 | 3.47 | 4.32 | 4.75 | 5.63 | 6.43 | 6.93 | 7.98 | 8.58 | 9.23 | 10.27 | 10.77 | 10.03 | 44.7 |
| Arezzo | 0.08 | 0.28 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 1.34 | 1.57 | 1.98 | 2.57 | 3.19 | 3.93 | 4.35 | 4.93 | 5.78 | 6.67 | 7.77 | 8.63 | 9.84 | 11.08 | 11.72 | 12.85 | 43.9 |
| Carrarese | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.63 | 0.94 | 1.35 | 1.61 | 2.07 | 2.61 | 3.35 | 4.03 | 4.70 | 5.66 | 6.68 | 7.71 | 8.76 | 9.99 | 11.74 | 13.41 | 14.11 | 42.6 |
| Sampdoria | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 0.66 | 0.84 | 1.26 | 1.57 | 1.93 | 2.57 | 3.26 | 4.15 | 5.44 | 6.87 | 9.37 | 12.85 | 18.04 | 30.18 | 38.8 |
Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons. Club names link to that club's full model profile.
View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.
How it's built
The table above is where the division actually stands after 50 matches, finished off 20,000 times over. Points already won are treated as certain, and only the 330 fixtures left to play are simulated, from each club's attacking and defending strength: a blend of shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and how the club has actually played this season, the last of those counting for more the longer the season runs. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. It knows nothing about upcoming fixture difficulty, injuries or suspensions.
_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._