Where the model has them
The model projects Vicenza Virtus to finish 10th in the Serie B this season, with an expected finishing position of 10.8. The model gives them a 1.47% chance of winning the title, 11.16% for the top four, and 9.44% of getting relegated, with an expected points tally of 51.4. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 1.16 and a defence multiplier of 1.25. The attack multiplier indicates they are slightly above average in attack, whilst the defence multiplier, being higher than 1.00, shows they are a bit leakier than the league average. Their attacking Elo of 1528 and defending Elo of 1518 reflect a side that's new to this division, so their strength leans on cross-league Elo ratings.
In attack
Vicenza's attack is rated slightly above average with a strength multiplier of 1.16. Gabriele Moncini is the key attacking player to watch, having scored 11 goals last season across 38 appearances, contributing 29% of the team's goals. He also led in shot volume with 42 shots in 38 games, playing in 76% of matches. Other top scorers in the squad include Tommaso Corazza with 5 goals and 2 assists, and Mattia Valoti with 4 goals and 3 assists. Despite Moncini's contribution, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, which is a noted weakness.
In defence
Defensively, Vicenza are projected to be a bit leakier than the average Serie B side, with a defence multiplier of 1.25. The higher the number, the worse the defence, so this indicates room for improvement at the back. Mattia Valoti leads in defensive actions with a rate of 3.51 per 90 minutes, followed by Nicolò Brighenti at 3.18 and Tommaso Corazza at 2.43. Brighenti, in particular, was a key defensive arrival in the transfer window, known for his solid defensive actions.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minimal changes to the model's projections for Vicenza. The attack multiplier moved slightly from 1.17 to 1.16, whilst the defence stayed at 1.25. The key attacking addition was Gabriele Moncini, who scored 11 goals last season, and defensively, Nicolò Brighenti joined, known for his 90 defensive actions. These moves had a marginal impact on the model's numbers, suggesting the squad's core strengths and weaknesses remain largely unchanged.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Vicenza's projection revolve around their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and a defence that's rated leakier than average. They're also new to this division, with no track record at this level to fall back on. These factors combined could see them struggle more than the model currently projects, especially if they fail to tighten up at the back and find more consistent goal-scoring threats.
---
Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Gabriele Moncini | 11 | 0.29 | 29% |
| Assists | Mattia Valoti | 3 | 0.19 | 13% |
| Shots | Gabriele Moncini | 42 | 1.11 | 76% |
| Tackles won | Mattia Valoti | 24 | 1.5 | 75% |
| Fouls drawn | Nicolò Brighenti | 42 | 1.4 | 87% |
| Fouls committed | Mattia Valoti | 29 | 1.81 | 69% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Mattia Valoti | 3.51 | 16 |
| Nicolò Brighenti | 3.18 | 30 |
| Tommaso Corazza | 2.43 | 26 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Gabriele Moncini (11g), out -
- Defence: in Nicolò Brighenti (90 def actions), out -
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._