Where the model has them
The model projects Cremonese to finish 2nd in Serie B this season. The headline probabilities show an 18.74% chance of winning the title, a 58.73% likelihood of making the top four, and just a 0.36% chance of relegation. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, as well as their Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier of 1.23 (1.00 being the league average) indicates a potent offensive unit, whilst the defence multiplier of 0.88 (lower is better) points to a solid backline. Their attacking Elo of 1533 and defending Elo of 1603 reflect their recent relegation into this division, not promotion.
In attack
Cremonese’s attack, with a strength multiplier of 1.23, is above average. Federico Bonazzoli, with 10 goals in 34 appearances, was their top scorer last season. Bonazzoli also led in shot volume with 56 attempts. Salvatore Elia chipped in with 9 assists in 33 games. The squad’s top scorers include Bonazzoli (10g/1a), Simone Pontisso (5g/6a), and Tommaso Berti (4g/7a). Despite these contributions, the model highlights a lack of a proven high-volume scorer, with Bonazzoli’s 10 goals being the best last season.
In defence
Defensively, Cremonese holds a multiplier of 0.88, indicating a robust unit. Their defensive-actions leaders include Matteo Bianchetti (3.44 per 90), Tommaso Barbieri (3.4 per 90), and Alberto Grassi (3.3 per 90). These numbers suggest a solid backline capable of limiting opponents. The defence, therefore, appears to be a strength rather than a soft spot.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes. The attack multiplier moved from 1.2 to 1.23, partly due to the arrival of Simone Pontisso, who scored 5 goals last season. Notably, Jamie Vardy, who scored 7 goals, departed. Defensively, the multiplier improved from 0.75 to 0.88 with the arrival of Sebastiano Luperto, known for his 80 defensive actions. The departure of Filippo Terracciano also impacted the defensive setup. These changes have tightened both ends of the pitch.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Cremonese’s projection lie in their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and the fact they were relegated into this division. The model has no record of them at this level, which introduces an element of uncertainty. Additionally, the potential for further squad breakups post-relegation could impact their performance. These factors should be considered when evaluating their chances this season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Federico Bonazzoli | 10 | 0.29 | 27% |
| Assists | Salvatore Elia | 9 | 0.27 | 24% |
| Shots | Federico Bonazzoli | 56 | 1.65 | 82% |
| Tackles won | Giuseppe Pezzella | 51 | 1.7 | 80% |
| Fouls drawn | Federico Bonazzoli | 76 | 2.24 | 91% |
| Fouls committed | Tommaso Barbieri | 40 | 1.43 | 82% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Bianchetti | 3.44 | 27 |
| Tommaso Barbieri | 3.4 | 28 |
| Alberto Grassi | 3.3 | 29 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Simone Pontisso (5g), out Jamie Vardy (7g)
- Defence: in Sebastiano Luperto (80 def actions), out Filippo Terracciano
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._