Where the model has them
Palermo are projected to finish 1st in Serie B this season, with a 33.72% chance of clinching the title, a 74.94% probability of securing a top-four spot, and just a 0.07% chance of relegation. This projection is driven by their strong attack and solid defence. Their attack strength multiplier stands at 1.21, indicating an attack 21% stronger than the league average. Their defence multiplier is 0.76, showing a defence 24% better than the average. Their attacking Elo is 1551, and their defensive Elo is 1596, both solid numbers that back up the multipliers.
In attack
Palermo's attack is formidable, led by Joel Pohjanpalo, who scored 25 goals in 39 appearances last season. His shot volume of 79 in 39 games shows he's the main man up front. Antonio Palumbo chipped in with 10 assists in 36 appearances, providing crucial service. Hernani, who joined this summer, adds depth with his 6 goals last season. Despite losing Rui Modesto, who scored 1 goal last season, the attack remains potent. The slight drop in the attack multiplier from 1.29 to 1.21 reflects this minor loss, but the overall strength remains.
In defence
Defensively, Palermo are well-organised. Their defence multiplier of 0.76 indicates they concede 24% fewer goals than the average team. Key to this is their defensive-actions leaders: Mattia Bani with 4.43 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Giangiacomo Magnani with 3.73, and Andrea Bozzolan with 3.57. The addition of Tommaso Cassandro, who had 119 defensive actions last season, strengthens this area. Losing Bartosz Bereszyński doesn't seem to have significantly impacted the model's view of their defensive capabilities.
What the window changed
The summer window saw some key moves that slightly adjusted the model's view. Hernani's arrival bolstered the attack, though the overall attack multiplier dipped from 1.29 to 1.21, reflecting the loss of Rui Modesto. Defensively, the addition of Tommaso Cassandro nudged the defence multiplier from 0.74 to 0.76, indicating a marginal improvement. These changes were minor, but they fine-tuned the model's projections.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to Palermo's projection is the net attacking output lost in the transfer window. Rui Modesto's departure, though he only scored 1 goal last season, means they have a bit less depth in attack. This could be a factor if Pohjanpalo or Hernani suffer injuries or dips in form. Keeping their attack firing on all cylinders will be crucial to meeting the model's high expectations.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Joel Pohjanpalo | 25 | 0.64 | 49% |
| Assists | Antonio Palumbo | 10 | 0.28 | 25% |
| Shots | Joel Pohjanpalo | 79 | 2.03 | 82% |
| Tackles won | Filippo Ranocchia | 61 | 1.85 | 82% |
| Fouls drawn | Hernani | 47 | 1.81 | 85% |
| Fouls committed | Filippo Ranocchia | 67 | 2.03 | 91% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Mattia Bani | 4.43 | 30 |
| Giangiacomo Magnani | 3.73 | 26 |
| Andrea Bozzolan | 3.57 | 26 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Hernani (6g), out Rui Modesto (1g)
- Defence: in Tommaso Cassandro (119 def actions), out Bartosz Bereszyński
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._