Where the model has them
The model has Ascoli finishing 12th in the projected table, with an expected finishing position of 11.4. This is driven by their attack and defence strength and the Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier is 0.86, which means they're below the league average in attack. Their defence multiplier is 0.9, slightly better than the average, indicating a solid defence. Their attacking Elo is 1455 and defending Elo is 1575, both reflecting their status as a new team in this division with strength leaning on cross-league Elo.
In attack
Ascoli's attack is rated below the league average with a strength multiplier of 0.86. The key attacking player in the data is Andrea Oliveri, who scored 3 goals in 15 appearances last season. Oliveri also led in shot volume with 11 shots in 11 appearances. Despite these contributions, Ascoli lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Oliveri's 3 goals being the best in the squad. This lack of a consistent goal threat is a significant factor in their below-average attack rating.
In defence
On the defensive side, Ascoli has a strength multiplier of 0.9, which is slightly better than the league average. The defensive-actions leaders in the squad are Andrea Oliveri with 2.91 actions per 90, Giacomo De Pieri with 2.52, and Gennaro Acampora with 2.5. Oliveri also led in tackles won with 18 in 15 appearances. This suggests a solid defensive unit, though not exceptionally strong. The defence is a reliable part of their game but doesn't offer a standout advantage.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor adjustments to Ascoli's attack and defence. The attack multiplier moved from 0.87 to 0.86, and the defence from 0.89 to 0.9. The key arrival was Andrea Oliveri, who contributed both in attack with 3 goals last season and in defence with 30 defensive actions. Whilst Oliveri adds some depth, the overall impact on the model's numbers was minimal, indicating that the squad changes did not significantly alter their projected performance.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Ascoli's projection stem from their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. Their new status in this division means there's no historical record at this level to fall back on. These factors combined suggest that whilst Ascoli is likely to avoid relegation with a 10.98% chance, they are also unlikely to challenge for the top spots, with only an 8.71% chance of finishing in the top four.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Andrea Oliveri | 3 | 0.2 | 13% |
| Shots | Gennaro Acampora | 11 | 1 | 64% |
| Tackles won | Andrea Oliveri | 18 | 1.2 | 73% |
| Fouls drawn | Gennaro Acampora | 23 | 2.09 | 91% |
| Fouls committed | Gennaro Acampora | 17 | 1.55 | 100% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Andrea Oliveri | 2.91 | 15 |
| Giacomo De Pieri | 2.52 | 17 |
| Gennaro Acampora | 2.5 | 11 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Andrea Oliveri (3g), out -
- Defence: in Andrea Oliveri (30 def actions), out -
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._