Where the model has them
The model projects Catanzaro to finish 4th in the Serie B this season, with a 10.61% chance of grabbing the title, a 43.86% shot at the top four, and a 1.06% risk of relegation. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in the attack multiplier of 1.44 and defence multiplier of 1.13. These multipliers show Catanzaro's attack is significantly stronger than the league average, whilst their defence, though solid, is slightly below average. Their attacking Elo of 1581 and defending Elo of 1530 further support this view.
In attack
Catanzaro's attack is their standout feature, with an attack strength multiplier of 1.44, well above the league average of 1.00. Key to this is Pietro Iemmello, who scored 12 goals and provided 10 assists last season. Filippo Pittarello also chipped in with 12 goals, showcasing their dual threat up front. Nicola Mosti's arrival, contributing 8 goals last season, strengthens this attacking unit further. With a shot volume of 62 in 34 appearances, Pittarello leads the way in creating chances. This potent attack is the main driver behind their high projected finish.
In defence
Defensively, Catanzaro is solid but not exceptional, with a defence multiplier of 1.13, where lower is better. Their defence is a slight weak point compared to the rest of the team. Leaders in defensive actions include Ruggero Frosinini with 4.57 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Costantino Favasuli with 3.57, and Matias Antonini with 3.28. Costantino Favasuli won 105 tackles last season, showing their defensive resilience. However, this area is rated leakier than average, which could be a soft spot throughout the season.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw Nicola Mosti arrive, boosting both the attack with his 8 goals last season and the defence with 73 defensive actions. Simone Pontisso's departure, despite his 5 goals last term, didn't significantly impact the attack multiplier, which rose from 1.36 to 1.44. Defensively, the loss of Tommaso Cassandro was offset by Mosti's arrival, keeping the defence multiplier steady at 1.13. These changes fine-tuned the model's view but didn't drastically alter the overall picture.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Catanzaro is their slightly below-average defence, rated at 1.13. This could be exploited by stronger attacking sides in Serie B, posing the biggest risk to their top-four projection. If their defence can tighten up, they have the attacking firepower to challenge for the title. But any significant defensive lapses could see them drop down the table quicker than expected.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Pietro Iemmello | 12 | 0.32 | 27% |
| Assists | Pietro Iemmello | 10 | 0.27 | 27% |
| Shots | Filippo Pittarello | 62 | 1.82 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Costantino Favasuli | 105 | 2.63 | 85% |
| Fouls drawn | Filippo Pittarello | 97 | 2.85 | 94% |
| Fouls committed | Filippo Pittarello | 63 | 1.85 | 88% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Ruggero Frosinini | 4.57 | 29 |
| Costantino Favasuli | 3.57 | 40 |
| Matias Antonini | 3.28 | 40 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Nicola Mosti (8g), out Simone Pontisso (5g)
- Defence: in Nicola Mosti (73 def actions), out Tommaso Cassandro
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._