Where the model has them
The model projects Padova to finish 15th in Serie B this season. The probability of relegation stands at 25.39%, whilst the chance of a top-four finish is a mere 3.27%. The expected points tally is 45.9, reflecting a tight mid-table battle. This projection is driven by Padova's attack strength multiplier of 0.96 (league average is 1.00, with higher numbers indicating a stronger attack) and a defence strength multiplier of 1.15 (lower numbers mean a stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1475 and defending Elo 1531, both of which align with a mid-table side.
In attack
Padova's attack is slightly below average, as indicated by the attack strength multiplier of 0.96. Key players to watch include Mattia Bortolussi, who scored 10 goals last season, and Alessandro Capelli with 6 assists. Papu Gómez, despite a short stint, managed 16 shots in just 9 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Bortolussi with 10 goals, Kevin Lasagna with 6, and Lorenzo Carissoni with 5. The lack of a proven high-volume scorer is a concern, with Bortolussi's 10 goals last season being the highest in the squad.
In defence
Defensively, Padova is rated as slightly weaker than average, with a defence strength multiplier of 1.15. The leaders in defensive actions per 90 minutes are Alessandro Dellavalle with 5.38, Christian Pastina with 5.24, and Pietro Fusi with 5.13. Despite these efforts, the model sees the defence as a soft spot, which is why the defence multiplier is higher than the league average.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier improved from 0.88 to 0.96, largely thanks to the arrival of Lorenzo Carissoni, who scored 5 goals last season. On the flip side, Luca Di Maggio, who contributed 3 goals, left the club. Defensively, the arrival of Matteo Lovato, who had 105 defensive actions last season, pushed the defence multiplier from 1.1 to 1.15. Marco Perrotta's departure didn't significantly impact the defensive metrics.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Padova revolve around their lack of a high-volume scorer and a defence that is leakier than average. These factors combine to make a mid-table finish the most likely outcome, with a significant risk of relegation at 25.39%.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Mattia Bortolussi | 10 | 0.31 | 28% |
| Assists | Alessandro Capelli | 6 | 0.17 | 17% |
| Shots | Papu Gómez | 16 | 1.78 | 78% |
| Tackles won | Alessandro Dellavalle | 39 | 2.6 | 100% |
| Fouls drawn | Mattia Bortolussi | 86 | 2.69 | 97% |
| Fouls committed | Pietro Fusi | 105 | 3.09 | 91% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Dellavalle | 5.38 | 15 |
| Christian Pastina | 5.24 | 10 |
| Pietro Fusi | 5.13 | 34 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Lorenzo Carissoni (5g), out Luca Di Maggio (3g)
- Defence: in Matteo Lovato (105 def actions), out Marco Perrotta
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._