Where the model has them
The model has Benevento finishing 7th in Serie B this season, with a 26.17% chance of making the top four and a 3.06% risk of relegation. This projection comes from their attack strength multiplier of 1.06 and defence multiplier of 0.93. These multipliers show Benevento as a slightly above-average attack and a below-average defence. Their attacking Elo is 0 and defending Elo is 0, reflecting their new status in this division.
In attack
Benevento's attack is rated just above the league average, with a strength multiplier of 1.06. Key to this is Pietro Beruatto, who contributed 2 goals and 4 assists last season. David Okereke chipped in with 2 goals in just 9 appearances, though he's yet to prove himself as a consistent scorer. Simone Verdi showed some spark with 7 shots in 11 games, but that's a small sample size. The model flags the lack of a proven high-volume scorer as a concern. Beruatto's 2 goals last season are the best on offer, which isn't much to go on.
In defence
Defensively, Benevento are projected as below average, with a defence multiplier of 0.93. This is driven by key players like Raffaele Celia, who averaged 3.71 defensive actions per 90 minutes last season, and Pietro Beruatto, who managed 3.69. Christian Dalle Mura also chipped in with 22 tackles won in 16 appearances. The model sees this as a soft spot, with the defence multiplier below 1.00.
What the window changed
The transfer window didn't move the needle much for Benevento. Their attack multiplier stayed at 1.06, whilst the defence improved slightly to 0.93 from 0.92. Pietro Beruatto was the key arrival, adding both goals and defensive actions. He scored 2 goals last season and made 84 defensive actions, so he's a useful dual threat. But the model doesn't see this as a game-changer.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks for Benevento this season are their unproven attack and their below-average defence. They lack a consistent scorer, with Pietro Beruatto's 2 goals last season being the best they've got. Defensively, they're below the league average, which could leave them exposed. Add to this their new status in this division, with no record to judge them on, and you've got a team that could struggle to hit the model's 7th place projection.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | David Okereke | 2 | 0.22 | 22% |
| Assists | Pietro Beruatto | 4 | 0.12 | 12% |
| Shots | Simone Verdi | 7 | 0.64 | 46% |
| Tackles won | Christian Dalle Mura | 22 | 1.38 | 63% |
| Fouls drawn | Simone Verdi | 6 | 0.55 | 46% |
| Fouls committed | Leonardo Sernicola | 29 | 1.45 | 75% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Raffaele Celia | 3.71 | 9 |
| Pietro Beruatto | 3.69 | 33 |
| Christian Dalle Mura | 3.47 | 16 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Pietro Beruatto (2g), out -
- Defence: in Pietro Beruatto (84 def actions), out -
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._