Where the model has them
The model projects Hellas Verona to finish 8th in Serie B this season, with an expected finishing position of 8.8. The title race is a distant prospect at 3.26%, whilst the top four looks more achievable at 20.48%. Relegation, however, isn't off the table at 4.07%. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their multipliers. Their attack strength multiplier is 0.92 (league average is 1.00, so below average), whilst their defence multiplier is 0.82 (lower is stronger, so this is above average). Their attacking Elo is 1486 and their defending Elo is 1600. Remember, they're stepping down a level having been relegated, so the model has no record of them at this standard.
In attack
Verona's attack is rated below the league average, with a strength multiplier of 0.92. Samuele Mulattieri is the key attacking player to watch, with 4 goals in 29 appearances last season, accounting for 14% of the team's goals. He also led the shot volume with 25 shots in 29 games, appearing in 62% of matches. Daniel Mosquera chipped in with 2 assists in 21 appearances. The top scorers in the squad last season were Mulattieri with 4 goals, Rafik Belghali and Martin Frese with 2 each. It's honest to say the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer, which is a concern given their below-average rating.
In defence
On the defensive side, Verona looks stronger with a defence multiplier of 0.82. The defensive-actions leaders are Andrias Edmundsson with 4.79 per 90 minutes, Charlys with 4.57, and Martin Frese with 4.52. Frese also won the most tackles with 81 in 30 appearances, playing in 90% of games. This suggests a solid defensive unit, though the step down from the top tier might pose unknowns.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier dropped from 0.99 to 0.92, reflecting the loss of Gift Orban (7 goals last season) and the arrival of Samuele Mulattieri (4 goals). On the defensive side, the multiplier improved from 0.76 to 0.82 with the arrival of Charlys, who contributed 104 defensive actions last season, and the departure of Victor Nelsson.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to the projection revolve around their attack. There's no proven high-volume scorer in the squad, and the net attacking output took a hit with the departure of Gift Orban. They're also a relegated side stepping down into this division, so there's an element of the unknown regarding how the squad will gel at this level. These factors underpin the model's cautious projection and the lingering relegation risk.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Samuele Mulattieri | 4 | 0.14 | 14% |
| Assists | Daniel Mosquera | 2 | 0.1 | 10% |
| Shots | Samuele Mulattieri | 25 | 0.86 | 62% |
| Tackles won | Martin Frese | 81 | 2.7 | 90% |
| Fouls drawn | Nicolò Calabrese | 17 | 0.68 | 56% |
| Fouls committed | Charlys | 50 | 1.56 | 81% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Andrias Edmundsson | 4.79 | 14 |
| Charlys | 4.57 | 32 |
| Martin Frese | 4.52 | 30 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Samuele Mulattieri (4g), out Gift Orban (7g)
- Defence: in Charlys (104 def actions), out Victor Nelsson
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._