Where the model has them
The model projects Pisa to finish 5th in Serie B this season. The headline probabilities show a 5.80% chance of winning the title, a 31.36% chance of finishing in the top four, and a 2.33% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 57.4. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength, as well as the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 1.19, meaning their attack is 19% stronger than the league average. The defence multiplier is 1.03, slightly below the average of 1.00, indicating a defence that's just a touch weaker than the norm. The attacking Elo is 1513 and the defending Elo is 1550, reflecting their status as a team relegated into this division rather than promoted.
In attack
Pisa's attack is slightly above average, with a strength multiplier of 1.19. Key to this is Tommaso Marras, who scored 7 goals last season, accounting for 20% of the team's games. Stefano Moreo led in shot volume with 45 shots in 36 appearances, playing in 69% of games. The top scorers in the squad are Marras with 7 goals and 1 assist, Stefano Moreo with 7 goals and 1 assist, and Simone Zanon with 4 goals and 6 assists. Despite these contributions, Pisa lacked a high-volume scorer last season, with Marras's 7 goals being the best on offer.
In defence
Defensively, Pisa sits just below average with a multiplier of 1.03. The defensive-actions leaders are Mehdi Léris with 4.69 actions per 90 minutes, Antonio Caracciolo with 4.13, and Rosen Bozhinov with 3.64. Simone Zanon, who arrived in the transfer window, contributed 6 assists in 35 appearances, playing in 17% of games. This defence, whilst not a major weak spot, isn't a standout strength either.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 1.1 to 1.19, largely thanks to the arrival of Tommaso Marras, who scored 7 goals last season. On the departure side, M'Bala Nzola, who scored 4 goals, left the squad. Defensively, the multiplier improved slightly from 1.04 to 1.03 with the arrival of Simone Zanon, who contributed 106 defensive actions. The departure of Ebenezer Akinsanmiro slightly weakened the defence, but the overall impact was minimal.
Weaknesses and risks
The main weaknesses the model sees are the lack of a proven high-volume scorer from last season and the fact that Pisa were relegated into this division, meaning the model has no record of them at this level. There's also a risk that the squad may yet be broken up, adding an element of uncertainty to the projection. These factors combine to present the main risks to the model's optimistic outlook.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Tommaso Marras | 7 | 0.23 | 20% |
| Assists | Simone Zanon | 6 | 0.17 | 17% |
| Shots | Stefano Moreo | 45 | 1.25 | 69% |
| Tackles won | Michel Aebischer | 63 | 1.85 | 88% |
| Fouls drawn | Isak Vural | 33 | 2.2 | 87% |
| Fouls committed | Arturo Calabresi | 30 | 1.2 | 76% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Mehdi Léris | 4.69 | 33 |
| Antonio Caracciolo | 4.13 | 34 |
| Rosen Bozhinov | 3.64 | 24 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Tommaso Marras (7g), out M'Bala Nzola (4g)
- Defence: in Simone Zanon (106 def actions), out Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._