Where the model has them
Virtus Entella is projected to finish 16th in the Serie B this season, with a 0.17% chance of winning the title and a 2.21% chance of securing a top-four finish. The model gives them a 28.59% probability of relegation, with an expected points tally of 44.8. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, measured by the attack and defence multipliers. Their attack multiplier is 0.82, below the league average of 1.00, whilst their defence multiplier is 1.02, slightly above the average of 1.00. Their attacking Elo is 1467 and their defensive Elo is 1528, reflecting a team that is more solid at the back than they are dangerous in attack.
In attack
Virtus Entella's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack multiplier of 0.82. Luigi Cuppone was the top scorer last season with 6 goals in 17 appearances, contributing 35% of the team's goals. Cuppone also led in shot volume with 42 shots in 17 appearances. Despite this, no player in the squad is a proven high-volume scorer, with Andrea Tiritiello the closest at 7 goals last season. The model sees this as a significant weakness, with the team struggling to consistently create and convert chances.
In defence
Defensively, Virtus Entella is slightly above average, with a defence multiplier of 1.02. Their defensive-actions leaders include Mattia Alborghetti with 3.45 actions per 90 minutes, Stefano Di Mario with 3.39, and Andrea Tiritiello with 3.38. Stefano Di Mario won 69 tackles in 36 appearances, showing a strong physical presence. This defensive solidity is a relative strength for the team, helping to mitigate their below-average attack.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some changes that have impacted the model's projections. The attack multiplier moved slightly from 0.83 to 0.82, whilst the defence multiplier improved from 1.14 to 1.02. The notable departure of Alessandro Debenedetti, who scored 3 goals last season, has slightly weakened the attack. On the defensive side, the arrival of Leonardo Benedetti, who contributed 40 defensive actions, has strengthened the backline. The departure of Marco Nichetti has been offset by this addition, resulting in a net positive for the defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The main weaknesses for Virtus Entella this season revolve around their attack. The lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack multiplier below the league average means they are likely to struggle in front of goal. This, combined with a slightly above-average defence, puts them at a 28.59% risk of relegation. The model sees their inability to consistently score as the biggest risk to their projected 16th-place finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Luigi Cuppone | 6 | 0.35 | 35% |
| Assists | Bernat Guiu | 4 | 0.15 | 15% |
| Shots | Luigi Cuppone | 42 | 2.47 | 94% |
| Tackles won | Stefano Di Mario | 69 | 1.92 | 83% |
| Fouls drawn | Stefano Di Mario | 70 | 1.94 | 89% |
| Fouls committed | Ivan Marconi | 48 | 1.41 | 85% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Mattia Alborghetti | 3.45 | 18 |
| Stefano Di Mario | 3.39 | 36 |
| Andrea Tiritiello | 3.38 | 26 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in -, out Alessandro Debenedetti (3g)
- Defence: in Leonardo Benedetti (40 def actions), out Marco Nichetti
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._