Where the model has them
Empoli are projected to finish 9th in Serie B this season, with an expected finishing position of 9.0. The model gives them a 2.86% chance of winning the league, a 20.56% chance of finishing in the top four, and a 4.61% chance of relegation. They're expected to end the season with 54.6 points. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 1.16 (league average is 1.00, higher is stronger) and their defence multiplier of 1.09 (league average is 1.00, lower is stronger). Their attacking Elo is 1495 and their defending Elo is 1548.
In attack
Empoli's attack is slightly above average, with a strength multiplier of 1.16. The key player here is Stiven Shpendi, who scored 15 goals in 35 appearances last season, accounting for 34% of the team's goals. Shpendi also led the team in shot volume with 63 shots in 35 games, playing in 80% of their matches. Other top scorers in the squad include Bogdan Popov with 5 goals and Joseph Ceesay with 3 goals. Marco Curto, with 2 assists in 15 appearances, is another important attacking contributor.
In defence
Empoli's defence is rated slightly below average, with a defence multiplier of 1.09. The defensive-actions leaders include Marco Curto with 4.2 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Flavio Bianchi with 3.46 per 90, and Gerard Yepes with 3.25 per 90. Luca Magnino won 35 tackles in 31 appearances, playing in 61% of games. This defensive setup suggests a slight weakness, as their defence multiplier is higher than the league average, indicating they are expected to concede more goals than most.
What the window changed
The summer transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model's numbers. The arrival of Filippo Distefano, who scored 3 goals last season, pushed the attack multiplier from 1.00 to 1.16. On the defensive side, Luca Belardinelli joined, bringing 13 defensive actions, which helped move the defence multiplier from 1.1 to 1.09. Notable departures include Salvatore Elia, who scored 2 goals, and Matteo Lovato, whose absence slightly weakened the defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model sees Empoli's defence as their main weakness, with a defence multiplier of 1.09 indicating they are likely to concede more goals than the average team. This could be the Achilles' heel that keeps them from climbing higher in the table, despite their above-average attack. If their defence doesn't tighten up, they might struggle to secure the points needed for a top-half finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Stiven Shpendi | 15 | 0.43 | 34% |
| Assists | Marco Curto | 2 | 0.13 | 13% |
| Shots | Stiven Shpendi | 63 | 1.8 | 80% |
| Tackles won | Luca Magnino | 35 | 1.13 | 61% |
| Fouls drawn | Stiven Shpendi | 56 | 1.6 | 86% |
| Fouls committed | Stiven Shpendi | 69 | 1.97 | 86% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Curto | 4.2 | 15 |
| Flavio Bianchi | 3.46 | 8 |
| Gerard Yepes | 3.25 | 32 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Filippo Distefano (3g), out Salvatore Elia (2g)
- Defence: in Luca Belardinelli (13 def actions), out Matteo Lovato
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._