Where the model has them
The model has Arezzo finishing 6th in Serie B this season, with an expected finishing position of 8.1. This projection comes from their attack and defence strength multipliers. Their attack strength multiplier is 1.06, which is slightly above the league average of 1.00, whilst their defence multiplier is 0.93, which is below the average of 1.00 but indicates a stronger defence that concedes fewer goals. Since Arezzo are new to this division, their Elo ratings are both 0, so the model relies more on the cross-league Elo and the multipliers.
In attack
Arezzo's attack is slightly above average, with a strength multiplier of 1.06. The key attacking player to watch is Alberto Cerri, who scored 3 goals and provided 3 assists in 15 appearances last season. He also took 22 shots, which is a solid volume given his game time. However, Arezzo lack a proven high-volume scorer from last season, with Cerri's 3 goals being the best in the squad. This makes their attack a bit unpredictable and reliant on a few players.
In defence
On the defensive side, Arezzo have a strength multiplier of 0.93, which is a positive sign for their backline. The defensive-actions leaders are Julián Illanes and Andrea Cagnano. Illanes averaged 3.02 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, whilst Cagnano averaged 2.87. These numbers show a solid defensive effort, with both players contributing significantly to keeping the opposition at bay.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key arrivals that slightly tweaked the model's numbers. Alberto Cerri, who scored 3 goals last season, bolsters the attack, whilst Julián Illanes, with 88 defensive actions, strengthens the defence. The attack multiplier stayed the same at 1.06, whilst the defence multiplier improved slightly from 0.92 to 0.93. These changes indicate that Arezzo have maintained their attacking edge whilst slightly enhancing their defensive resilience.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Arezzo's projection come from their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and their newness to this division. Relying on a few players for goals can be a weak point if those players underperform. Additionally, with no record at this level, it's harder to gauge how they'll adapt to the increased competition. These factors could see them finish lower than the model's 6th place projection if things don't go their way.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Alberto Cerri | 3 | 0.2 | 20% |
| Assists | Alberto Cerri | 3 | 0.2 | 20% |
| Shots | Alberto Cerri | 22 | 1.47 | 87% |
| Tackles won | Andrea Cagnano | 25 | 1.32 | 74% |
| Fouls drawn | Julián Illanes | 56 | 1.75 | 84% |
| Fouls committed | Julián Illanes | 48 | 1.5 | 81% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Julián Illanes | 3.02 | 32 |
| Andrea Cagnano | 2.87 | 19 |
| Alberto Cerri | 0.87 | 15 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Alberto Cerri (3g), out -
- Defence: in Julián Illanes (88 def actions), out -
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._