Where the model has them
The model projects Cesena to finish 18th in Serie B, with a 40.01% chance of relegation. This is driven by an attack strength multiplier of 0.87 (below the league average) and a defence multiplier of 1.16 (above average, meaning they're expected to concede more). Their attacking Elo sits at 1481, whilst their defensive Elo is 1525. Whilst the defence looks slightly stronger on paper, the model's projected table places them in the bottom three, highlighting a fragile balance between the two.
In attack
Cesena's attack is below the league average, with a strength multiplier of 0.87. Cristian Shpendi is the key attacking player, contributing 12 goals and 5 assists in 36 appearances last season. He also took 76 shots, showing his central role in their offensive play. Antonio Fiori, who joined in the window, adds some firepower with his 6 goals from last season. Despite these players, the attack remains a weak point, with an output that the model sees as insufficient to climb the table.
In defence
Defensively, Cesena are projected to concede more than the average team, with a multiplier of 1.16. Giovanni Zaro leads the way with 79 tackles won in 35 appearances, averaging 5.37 defensive actions per 90 minutes. Mihajlo Ilić, a new arrival, adds 3.98 defensive actions per 90, whilst Matteo Francesconi contributes 3.59. Whilst these numbers look solid, the model's higher defence multiplier suggests that, overall, they're expected to be more porous than most.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw a net loss in attacking output, with Tommaso Berti (4 goals last season) leaving. This dropped the attack multiplier from 0.95 to 0.87. Defensively, the arrival of Mihajlo Ilić (34 defensive actions last season) nudged the defence multiplier down slightly from 1.2 to 1.16. These changes reflect a slight strengthening in defence but a weakening in attack, aligning with the model's projections.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Cesena revolve around their below-average attack and above-average (worse) defence. The loss of attacking output in the window hasn't been fully offset by new arrivals, leaving them with a fragile goalscoring threat. Coupled with a defence that's expected to concede more than average, these weaknesses point to a season where avoiding relegation will be the primary goal. The model sees a 40.01% chance of them going down, driven by these imbalanced strengths and weaknesses.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Cristian Shpendi | 12 | 0.33 | 28% |
| Assists | Cristian Shpendi | 5 | 0.14 | 14% |
| Shots | Cristian Shpendi | 76 | 2.11 | 86% |
| Tackles won | Giovanni Zaro | 79 | 2.26 | 94% |
| Fouls drawn | Cristian Shpendi | 45 | 1.25 | 69% |
| Fouls committed | Mihajlo Ilić | 12 | 1.2 | 90% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Zaro | 5.37 | 35 |
| Mihajlo Ilić | 3.98 | 10 |
| Matteo Francesconi | 3.59 | 29 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Antonio Fiori (6g), out Tommaso Berti (4g)
- Defence: in Mihajlo Ilić (34 def actions), out Tommaso Berti
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._