Avellino: Serie B 2026/27 Model Projection

Where the model has them

The model projects Avellino to finish 17th in Serie B this season. It’s not pretty, with relegation odds sitting at 33.50% and top-four chances a mere 1.92%. The expected points tally of 43.9 reflects a side hovering just above the relegation zone. This outlook is driven by a slight edge in defence over attack. The defence multiplier of 1.21 (with lower being better) and attacking multiplier of 0.95 (with 1.00 being average) paint a picture of a team that concedes more than the average but scores less. The attacking Elo of 1478 and defending Elo of 1517 reinforce this, showing a defence that’s a tad better than the attack but neither are standout.

In attack

The attacking strength multiplier of 0.95 tells you everything you need to know: Avellino's attack is below average. Key to their attack is Tommaso Biasci, who scored 12 goals last season in 34 appearances, contributing 29% of the goals. Biasci also led in shot volume with 46 shots in 34 games. Armando Izzo chipped in with 4 assists in 24 appearances, showing a knack for creating opportunities. Despite these contributions, the overall attacking efficiency remains subpar, with Biasci and Izzo being the main bright spots in an otherwise underwhelming attack.

In defence

Defensively, Avellino fare slightly better but are still not up to the league average. The defence multiplier of 1.21 indicates they concede more goals than the average team. Key defensive players include Luca Palmiero, who won 62 tackles in 32 appearances. The defensive-actions leaders per 90 minutes are Michael Venturi with 8.64, Dimitrios Sounas with 4.77, and Alessandro Fontanarosa with 4.59. These numbers show a workmanlike defence that relies on solid tackling and interceptions but still leaks goals more often than not.

What the window changed

The transfer window saw minor tweaks to Avellino's setup. The attack multiplier nudged up from 0.93 to 0.95, and the defence multiplier improved slightly from 1.22 to 1.21. Armando Izzo was a key addition, contributing both goals (4 last season) and defensive actions (74). The departure of Filippo Missori, who scored 2 goals and provided some defensive contributions, was a small loss but not enough to significantly alter the model’s view.

Weaknesses and risks

The model’s main concern for Avellino is their leaky defence, rated worse than average with a defence multiplier of 1.21. This, coupled with an attack that’s below par, creates a precarious balance. The risk is clear: if the defence doesn’t tighten up, Avellino could find themselves in a relegation dogfight, despite the modest contributions from their key attackers.

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Key players (last season)

Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)

Transfer impact (model)

• Attack: in Armando Izzo (4g), out Filippo Missori (2g)
• Defence: in Armando Izzo (74 def actions), out Filippo Missori

_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._