Where the model has them
The model projects Sudtirol to finish 19th in Serie B this season, with a 41.06% chance of relegation. Their expected points tally is 42.2, and their most likely finishing position is 15.7, though the single most likely individual position is 20th. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their attack multiplier of 0.75 (league average is 1.00) and defence multiplier of 1.01 (lower is better, 1.00 is average). Their attacking Elo is 1444 and defending Elo is 1558, both of which contribute to the overall picture the model paints.
In attack
Sudtirol's attack is rated below the league average with an attack strength multiplier of 0.75. This is reflected in their key attacking players. Silvio Merkaj led the team with 9 goals in 37 appearances, but that's hardly a high-volume scorer. Daniele Casiraghi provided 7 assists in 31 games, and Merkaj also had the highest shot volume with 51 shots in 37 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Merkaj with 9 goals and 1 assist, Casiraghi with 4 goals and 7 assists, and Jacopo Martini with 2 goals and 1 assist. The lack of a proven, high-volume scorer is a significant weakness.
In defence
Defensively, Sudtirol is slightly above average with a defence multiplier of 1.01. The defensive-actions leaders are Simone Tronchin with 5.12 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Marco Frigerio with 4.01 per 90, and Aljoša Vasić with 3.54 per 90. Tronchin won 90 tackles in 35 appearances, showing solid defensive contributions. This area is not a significant soft spot but isn't a standout strength either.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some changes that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 0.81 to 0.75, and the defence from 1.00 to 1.01. Rareș Burnete, who scored 2 goals last season, joined as the key attacking arrival. However, the departure of Emanuele Pecorino, who scored 9 goals last season, represents a net loss in attacking output. Defensively, Marco Varnier arrived and contributed 32 defensive actions, whilst Raphael Kofler left. These changes were marginal but slightly weakened the attack and marginally strengthened the defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Sudtirol's projection revolve around their attacking limitations. With no proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average, generating consistent goals will be a struggle. The loss of Emanuele Pecorino, their top scorer last season, exacerbates this issue. If their defence can't compensate, the high probability of relegation becomes a very real threat.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Silvio Merkaj | 9 | 0.24 | 24% |
| Assists | Daniele Casiraghi | 7 | 0.23 | 19% |
| Shots | Silvio Merkaj | 51 | 1.38 | 76% |
| Tackles won | Simone Tronchin | 90 | 2.57 | 91% |
| Fouls drawn | Daniele Casiraghi | 82 | 2.65 | 87% |
| Fouls committed | Silvio Merkaj | 89 | 2.41 | 97% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Simone Tronchin | 5.12 | 35 |
| Marco Frigerio | 4.01 | 19 |
| Aljoša Vasić | 3.54 | 23 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Rareș Burnete (2g), out Emanuele Pecorino (9g)
- Defence: in Marco Varnier (32 def actions), out Raphael Kofler
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._