Juve Stabia: Serie B 2026-27 model profile
Where the model has them
The model has Juve Stabia finishing 13th in Serie B this season. The headline probabilities show a 0.68% chance of winning the title, a 6.69% shot at the top four, and a 14.23% risk of relegation. The expected points tally is 49.1. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength ratings, along with the Elo metrics. The attack strength multiplier is 0.88, indicating an attack below the league average. The defence multiplier is 0.95, suggesting a defence slightly stronger than the average. The attacking Elo stands at 1490, whilst the defensive Elo is 1566.
In attack
Juve Stabia's attack is rated below the league average, reflected in the 0.88 multiplier. Leonardo Candellone was the top scorer last season with 7 goals in 22 appearances, contributing 32% of the goals. He also led in shot volume with 36 shots in 22 games. Manuel Ricciardi provided the most assists with just 1 in 17 appearances. The squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Candellone's 7 goals being the best output last season. This thin attacking threat is a key factor in the below-average attack rating.
In defence
Defensively, Juve Stabia is rated slightly above average with a 0.95 multiplier. The defensive-actions leaders include Matteo Baldi with 4.15 actions per 90 minutes, Christian Pierobon with 3.51, and Justin Kumi with 3.27. Kumi also won the most tackles with 24 in 18 appearances. This suggests a solid, if unspectacular, defensive unit. The defence is a relative strength compared to the below-average attack.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some shifts in the model's numbers. The attack multiplier dropped from 0.96 to 0.88, reflecting the loss of Nicola Mosti, who scored 8 goals last season. Kevin Piscopo arrived and is expected to contribute both in attack (3 goals last season) and defence (43 defensive actions). The defence multiplier remained stable at 0.95. The net effect is a slight weakening of the attack, whilst the defence stayed consistent.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to the projection centre around Juve Stabia's attacking limitations. The lack of a proven high-volume scorer and the below-average attack multiplier (0.88) pose significant challenges. The loss of Nicola Mosti's 8 goals hasn't been fully replaced, despite Kevin Piscopo's arrival. This attacking fragility, coupled with a relatively solid but unspectacular defence, drives the model's 13th-place projection and the associated probabilities.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Leonardo Candellone | 7 | 0.32 | 32% |
| Assists | Manuel Ricciardi | 1 | 0.06 | 6% |
| Shots | Leonardo Candellone | 36 | 1.64 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Justin Kumi | 24 | 1.33 | 72% |
| Fouls drawn | Leonardo Candellone | 32 | 1.45 | 77% |
| Fouls committed | Leonardo Candellone | 50 | 2.27 | 86% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Baldi | 4.15 | 8 |
| Christian Pierobon | 3.51 | 31 |
| Justin Kumi | 3.27 | 18 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Kevin Piscopo (3g), out Nicola Mosti (8g)
- Defence: in Kevin Piscopo (43 def actions), out Lorenzo Carissoni
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._