Where the model has them
Mantova are projected to finish 14th in Serie B this season, with the model giving them a 0.68% chance of winning the title, a 6.63% chance of making the top four, and a 15.29% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 48.9, with a finishing position expectation of 12.2. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength multipliers, along with the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier of 1.03 suggests an attack slightly above the league average, whilst the defence multiplier of 1.14 indicates a defence that is leakier than average. The attacking Elo of 1506 and defending Elo of 1523 also reflect a balanced but not exceptional team.
In attack
Mantova’s attack is slightly above average, with an attack strength multiplier of 1.03. The key attacking player to watch is Ettore Gliozzi, who scored 11 goals last season and took 59 shots in 34 appearances. He was involved in 29% of Mantova’s goals last season. Rareș Ilie provided 4 assists in 26 appearances, contributing to 15% of the team’s goals. The top scorers in the squad are Gliozzi with 11 goals and 2 assists, Leonardo Mancuso with 8 goals, and Francesco Ruocco with 7 goals and 1 assist. Despite these contributions, the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer, which is a concern for the model.
In defence
Defensively, Mantova are rated below average with a defence strength multiplier of 1.14. The defensive-actions leaders include Alessio Castellini with 3.91 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Jonathan Silva with 3.66 per 90, and Andrea Meroni with 3.58 per 90. Castellini won 74 tackles in 35 appearances, showcasing his defensive prowess. However, the defence is seen as a soft spot, particularly given the departure of Cristiano Bani, which has not been fully offset by the arrival of Meroni.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model’s numbers. The arrival of Ettore Gliozzi, who scored 11 goals last season, improved the attack multiplier from 1.00 to 1.03. On the defensive side, the addition of Andrea Meroni, who contributed 66 defensive actions last season, helped lower the defence multiplier from 1.22 to 1.14. However, the departure of Tommaso Marras, who scored 7 goals last season, and the loss of Cristiano Bani in defence, meant the overall impact of the window was mixed.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Mantova’s projection lie in their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and a defence that is below average. Gliozzi’s 11 goals last season are the best in the squad, but it’s not enough to guarantee consistent attacking returns. Coupled with a defence that leaks more goals than the average team, these weaknesses could see Mantova struggle to climb higher than mid-table, reinforcing the model’s projection of a 14th-place finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Ettore Gliozzi | 11 | 0.32 | 29% |
| Assists | Rareș Ilie | 4 | 0.15 | 15% |
| Shots | Ettore Gliozzi | 59 | 1.74 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Alessio Castellini | 74 | 2.11 | 86% |
| Fouls drawn | Simone Trimboli | 110 | 3.06 | 94% |
| Fouls committed | Andrea Meroni | 29 | 1.45 | 85% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Alessio Castellini | 3.91 | 35 |
| Jonathan Silva | 3.66 | 17 |
| Andrea Meroni | 3.58 | 20 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Ettore Gliozzi (11g), out Tommaso Marras (7g)
- Defence: in Andrea Meroni (66 def actions), out Cristiano Bani
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._