Where the model has them
The model has Carrarese finishing 11th in Serie B this season, with a projected expected finishing position of 11.3. The model gives them a 1.14% chance of winning the title, a 9.37% chance of finishing in the top four, and an 11.03% chance of relegation. Their expected points tally is 50.5. This mid-table projection is driven by their attack and defence strength. Their attack strength multiplier is 0.98, just below the league average of 1.00. Their defence multiplier is 1.02, slightly above the average, suggesting a slightly stronger defence. Their attacking Elo is 1488, whilst their defending Elo is 1537, reinforcing the view that they are a touch more solid at the back than they are potent in attack.
In attack
Carrarese's attack is a shade below average, with a strength multiplier of 0.98. Fabio Abiuso is the key man here, contributing 11 goals and 5 assists across 36 appearances last season. He also took 62 shots, more than anyone else in the squad. The next best goal tally was Nicolas Schiavi with 6, and Mattia Finotto with 4. Abiuso accounted for 28% of Carrarese's goals last season, and 14% of their assists. His shot volume was 69% of the team's total. The model sees this as an attack lacking a proven high-volume scorer, with Abiuso's 11 goals last season the best on offer.
In defence
Defensively, Carrarese are a touch above average, with a strength multiplier of 1.02. Their defensive-actions leaders are Filippo Oliana with 4.29 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Nicolas Schiavi with 3.99, and Fabio Ruggeri with 3.91. Schiavi also won 60 tackles in 28 appearances last season, a key contributor at the back. The model views this as a slight strength for Carrarese, though not a standout one.
What the window changed
The summer transfer window saw Carrarese's attack multiplier move from 0.99 to 0.98, and their defence from 1.11 to 1.02. The notable departures were Luis Hasa, who scored 5 goals last season, and defensive contributor Simone Zanon. No major incomings have materially changed the model's view. The slight drop in the attack multiplier reflects the loss of Hasa's goals, whilst the defence multiplier moving closer to the average suggests the model sees the backline as slightly less robust without Zanon.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Carrarese is their lack of a proven high-volume scorer. Fabio Abiuso's 11 goals last season were the best the squad offered, and the model sees this as a key risk to their mid-table projection. If Abiuso doesn't replicate his goal tally, or if the team can't find other sources of goals, they could struggle for points. Their defence, whilst slightly above average, isn't a standout strength either. This reliance on Abiuso up front, coupled with a merely solid backline, underpins the model's 11th place projection.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Fabio Abiuso | 11 | 0.31 | 28% |
| Assists | Fabio Abiuso | 5 | 0.14 | 14% |
| Shots | Fabio Abiuso | 62 | 1.72 | 69% |
| Tackles won | Nicolas Schiavi | 60 | 2.14 | 82% |
| Fouls drawn | Fabio Abiuso | 42 | 1.17 | 69% |
| Fouls committed | Fabio Ruggeri | 31 | 1.63 | 79% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Filippo Oliana | 4.29 | 25 |
| Nicolas Schiavi | 3.99 | 28 |
| Fabio Ruggeri | 3.91 | 19 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in -, out Luis Hasa (5g)
- Defence: in -, out Simone Zanon
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._