Where the model has them
The model has Sampdoria finishing 20th in Serie B this season, with a 51.04% chance of relegation. Their title chances are virtually non-existent at 0.02%, and the top four is a long shot at 0.53%. This bleak projection is driven by an attack multiplier of 0.74 (league average is 1.00) and a defence multiplier of 1.07 (lower is better, 1.00 is average). Their attacking Elo is 1431, and their defensive Elo is 1558. This means they are expected to score less and concede more than the average team in the league, leading to an expected points total of 40.4.
In attack
Sampdoria's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.74. The key attacking player is Tobias Lauritsen, who scored 12 goals last season and is expected to lead the line again. However, the departure of Massimo Coda, who scored 9 goals last season, leaves a gap. Lorenzo Insigne, despite only playing in 42% of games last season, contributed 5 goals and 3 assists, showing his quality when on the pitch. Danel Sinani also chipped in with 5 goals and 3 assists. But with an attack multiplier this low, Sampdoria will struggle to find the net consistently.
In defence
Defensively, Sampdoria are rated slightly worse than average, with a defence multiplier of 1.07. The arrival of Luca Ravanelli, who had 100 defensive actions last season, is a positive, but the loss of Luigi Cherubini weakens the backline. Salvatore Esposito won 36 tackles last season, whilst Alex Ferrari leads the defensive actions per 90 with 4.14, followed by Ravanelli with 3.65 and Oliver Abildgaard with 3.41. Despite these efforts, the defence is still seen as a soft spot, likely to concede more than the average team.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model's numbers. The arrival of Tobias Lauritsen improved the attack multiplier slightly from 0.76 to 0.74, whilst Luca Ravanelli's defensive contributions moved the defence multiplier from 1.00 to 1.07. The departures of Massimo Coda and Luigi Cherubini had a negative impact, but the net effect was a marginal improvement in defence and a slight decline in attack.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Sampdoria's projection are their below-average attack and slightly-worse-than-average defence. With an attack multiplier of 0.74 and a defence multiplier of 1.07, they are expected to struggle both in front of goal and at the back. This combination makes relegation the most likely outcome, with a 51.04% chance of dropping down a division.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Lorenzo Insigne | 5 | 0.42 | 42% |
| Assists | Lorenzo Insigne | 3 | 0.25 | 17% |
| Shots | Tobias Lauritsen | 60 | 1.82 | 85% |
| Tackles won | Salvatore Esposito | 36 | 1.64 | 82% |
| Fouls drawn | Salvatore Esposito | 72 | 3.27 | 96% |
| Fouls committed | Liam Henderson | 67 | 2.23 | 90% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Ferrari | 4.14 | 12 |
| Luca Ravanelli | 3.65 | 31 |
| Oliver Abildgaard | 3.41 | 28 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Tobias Lauritsen (12g), out Massimo Coda (9g)
- Defence: in Luca Ravanelli (100 def actions), out Luigi Cherubini
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._