Where the model has them
Modena are projected to finish 3rd in the Serie B this season, with an expected finishing position of 5.9. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, along with their Elo ratings. The model gives Modena an attack strength multiplier of 1.02, slightly above the league average of 1.00, indicating a marginally stronger than average attack. On the defensive side, they have a strength multiplier of 0.76, well below the average, showing a notably stronger defence. Their attacking Elo stands at 1502, whilst their defensive Elo is higher at 1577, reinforcing the view of a solid defence and a competent but not spectacular attack.
In attack
Modena's attack, whilst competent, lacks a standout high-volume scorer. Giacomo Olzer led the team with 6 goals last season, but that's hardly prolific. Paulo Azzi chipped in with 5 goals and 6 assists, providing a bit more creativity. Olzer also had the highest shot volume with 44 shots in 27 appearances. Despite these contributions, the attack is just slightly above average, with a multiplier of 1.02. This suggests they'll score enough to be competitive, but don’t expect them to light up the Serie B with goal fests.
In defence
On the defensive side, Modena look much stronger. Their defence multiplier of 0.76 indicates they concede fewer goals than the average team. The defensive-actions leaders in the squad are Daniel Tonoli, Alessandro Sersanti, and Steven Nador, all averaging over 4 combined tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes. This solid backline, combined with a defensive Elo of 1577, suggests they'll be tough to break down.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that tweaked the model's numbers. Paulo Azzi arrived, boosting both the attack with his 5 goals last season and the defence with 104 defensive actions. His addition nudged the attack multiplier down from 1.04 to 1.02 and the defence multiplier down from 0.82 to 0.76, reflecting a more balanced contribution. The departure of Ettore Gliozzi, who scored 11 goals last season, slightly weakened the attack, whilst the loss of Bryant Nieling had a minor impact on defence. Overall, the changes reinforced Modena's balanced approach.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to Modena's projection lies in their lack of a proven high-volume scorer. With Giacomo Olzer's 6 goals last season being the best in the squad, there's a reliance on a few players to deliver in the final third. If these players underperform, the attack could struggle to maintain the slightly above-average efficiency the model expects. This could particularly hurt their chances of sneaking into the top two, where a more potent attack might be needed.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Giacomo Olzer | 6 | 0.22 | 22% |
| Assists | Giuseppe Caso | 3 | 0.19 | 19% |
| Shots | Giacomo Olzer | 44 | 1.63 | 74% |
| Tackles won | Paulo Azzi | 77 | 2.08 | 92% |
| Fouls drawn | Alessandro Sersanti | 37 | 1.54 | 88% |
| Fouls committed | Giacomo Olzer | 46 | 1.7 | 82% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Tonoli | 4.29 | 35 |
| Alessandro Sersanti | 4.11 | 24 |
| Steven Nador | 4.05 | 11 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Paulo Azzi (5g), out Ettore Gliozzi (11g)
- Defence: in Paulo Azzi (104 def actions), out Bryant Nieling
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._