The model makes Palermo the title favourite, first in 33.7% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of Cremonese on 18.7% and Modena on 10.6%. On expected points that is Palermo 66.9, Cremonese 63.3, Modena 60.5. Two clubs finish in the top four more often than not: Palermo 74.9%, Cremonese 58.7%.
At the other end, Sampdoria carries the highest relegation risk at 51.0%, then Sudtirol on 41.1% and Cesena on 40.0%. The bottom club averages 40.4 points to Palermo's 66.9.
Here's the deal with this simulation: it's a tool, not a crystal ball. What you've got is a spread of possible outcomes, not a single, definitive answer. Think of it like this: it gives you a feel for the range of where a club might land, which is invaluable when you're crafting an acca or a bet builder. But remember, it's blind to the chaos of an actual season. Injuries, fixture pile-ups, managerial changes, none of that's factored in. It's all about the numbers we've got: current form, past performance, and underlying stats. So, use it to get a sense of the landscape, but always keep one eye on the real-world noise that the model can't see. It's a guide, not a gospel.
Every club, every finishing position
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 33.72 | 19.12 | 13.24 | 8.87 | 6.62 | 4.72 | 3.89 | 2.88 | 2.03 | 1.44 | 1.17 | 0.78 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 66.9 |
| Cremonese | 18.74 | 16.26 | 12.90 | 10.83 | 8.57 | 6.92 | 5.91 | 4.62 | 3.49 | 3.07 | 2.29 | 1.81 | 1.50 | 1.12 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 63.3 |
| Modena | 10.61 | 12.31 | 11.78 | 10.56 | 9.21 | 8.05 | 7.17 | 6.20 | 5.26 | 4.37 | 3.68 | 2.84 | 2.47 | 1.81 | 1.22 | 1.02 | 0.62 | 0.49 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 60.5 |
| Catanzaro | 10.61 | 11.69 | 11.28 | 10.28 | 9.24 | 7.76 | 6.92 | 6.63 | 5.30 | 4.37 | 3.67 | 3.03 | 2.55 | 1.91 | 1.69 | 1.18 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 60.1 |
| Pisa | 5.80 | 7.89 | 8.58 | 9.09 | 8.29 | 8.22 | 7.68 | 7.01 | 6.31 | 5.82 | 5.05 | 4.41 | 4.06 | 3.21 | 2.56 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 1.14 | 0.76 | 0.43 | 57.4 |
| Arezzo | 4.42 | 6.28 | 7.27 | 7.76 | 8.36 | 8.09 | 7.70 | 7.18 | 6.75 | 6.43 | 5.74 | 5.17 | 4.27 | 3.89 | 2.90 | 2.74 | 1.99 | 1.52 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 56.2 |
| Benevento | 4.32 | 6.22 | 7.50 | 8.14 | 7.90 | 8.19 | 7.45 | 7.60 | 6.93 | 6.02 | 5.44 | 4.96 | 4.56 | 3.96 | 3.21 | 2.62 | 1.96 | 1.41 | 1.10 | 0.55 | 56.2 |
| Hellas Verona | 3.26 | 4.59 | 5.68 | 6.95 | 7.28 | 7.90 | 7.32 | 7.47 | 7.19 | 6.79 | 6.44 | 5.73 | 4.93 | 4.54 | 4.05 | 3.41 | 2.40 | 1.91 | 1.32 | 0.83 | 54.8 |
| Empoli | 2.86 | 4.82 | 6.17 | 6.70 | 6.98 | 7.30 | 7.62 | 7.22 | 7.01 | 6.54 | 6.26 | 5.70 | 5.06 | 4.48 | 4.24 | 3.52 | 2.90 | 2.14 | 1.54 | 0.93 | 54.6 |
| Vicenza Virtus | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.06 | 4.16 | 5.00 | 5.48 | 6.07 | 6.39 | 6.75 | 6.65 | 6.80 | 6.93 | 6.56 | 6.44 | 6.35 | 5.15 | 4.83 | 4.08 | 3.26 | 2.09 | 51.4 |
| Carrarese | 1.14 | 2.10 | 2.81 | 3.31 | 4.51 | 5.15 | 5.30 | 6.04 | 6.58 | 6.83 | 7.03 | 6.96 | 6.83 | 6.73 | 6.45 | 5.83 | 5.37 | 4.52 | 3.94 | 2.57 | 50.5 |
| Ascoli | 0.92 | 1.84 | 2.69 | 3.28 | 4.06 | 4.93 | 5.65 | 6.02 | 6.50 | 6.98 | 6.83 | 7.47 | 6.91 | 6.86 | 6.55 | 6.04 | 5.50 | 4.78 | 3.72 | 2.48 | 50.3 |
| Juve Stabia | 0.68 | 1.33 | 1.86 | 2.82 | 3.53 | 4.15 | 4.93 | 5.55 | 5.75 | 6.35 | 6.73 | 7.10 | 7.10 | 7.27 | 7.25 | 6.93 | 6.45 | 5.59 | 5.25 | 3.38 | 49.1 |
| Mantova | 0.67 | 1.29 | 2.04 | 2.62 | 3.67 | 4.23 | 4.76 | 5.07 | 5.99 | 6.26 | 6.54 | 6.93 | 7.04 | 7.17 | 7.08 | 6.78 | 6.55 | 6.06 | 5.24 | 3.98 | 48.9 |
| Padova | 0.29 | 0.53 | 0.99 | 1.47 | 1.91 | 2.40 | 3.18 | 3.59 | 4.39 | 5.10 | 5.83 | 5.83 | 6.94 | 7.46 | 7.89 | 8.07 | 8.74 | 8.96 | 8.47 | 7.96 | 45.9 |
| Virtus Entella | 0.17 | 0.40 | 0.68 | 0.96 | 1.58 | 1.87 | 2.36 | 2.85 | 3.56 | 4.50 | 5.24 | 5.82 | 6.87 | 7.54 | 8.39 | 9.33 | 9.27 | 9.50 | 9.66 | 9.43 | 44.8 |
| Avellino | 0.16 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 0.82 | 1.28 | 1.69 | 2.17 | 2.50 | 3.47 | 3.95 | 4.67 | 5.47 | 6.02 | 7.06 | 7.72 | 9.20 | 9.40 | 10.56 | 11.14 | 11.79 | 43.9 |
| Cesena | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 1.28 | 1.61 | 2.08 | 2.74 | 3.08 | 3.81 | 4.86 | 5.61 | 6.39 | 7.31 | 8.41 | 10.57 | 11.46 | 13.13 | 15.42 | 42.6 |
| Sudtirol | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0.53 | 0.70 | 1.06 | 1.38 | 1.79 | 2.39 | 3.19 | 3.89 | 4.62 | 5.57 | 6.35 | 7.62 | 9.01 | 10.36 | 12.18 | 13.54 | 15.35 | 42.2 |
| Sampdoria | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 0.45 | 0.61 | 0.95 | 1.33 | 1.60 | 2.26 | 2.90 | 3.59 | 4.66 | 5.36 | 6.54 | 7.93 | 10.25 | 12.89 | 16.23 | 21.92 | 40.4 |
Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons. Club names link to that club's full model profile.
View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.
How it's built
The table above is where the division actually stands after 1 match, finished off 20,000 times over. Points already won are treated as certain, and only the 379 fixtures left to play are simulated, from each club's attacking and defending strength: a blend of shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and how the club has actually played this season, the last of those counting for more the longer the season runs. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. It knows nothing about upcoming fixture difficulty, injuries or suspensions.
_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._