The model makes Burnley the title favourite, first in 24.9% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of West Ham on 22.5% and Wolves on 18.3%. On expected points that is Burnley 81.2, West Ham 80.5, Wolves 79.0. Three clubs finish in the top four more often than not: Burnley 68.1%, West Ham 65.4%, Wolves 59.6%.
At the other end, Charlton carries the highest relegation risk at 43.5%, then Watford on 41.2% and Blackburn on 34.3%. The bottom club averages 48.8 points to Burnley's 81.2.
This simulation gives you a spread of possible outcomes, not a single, definitive answer. It's handy for seeing just how wide a club's potential range is. But remember, it's blind to everything that actually happens in a season. It doesn't know about fixtures, injuries, or form. It's a snapshot taken at the start, based purely on pre-season strengths and weaknesses. Use it to get a feel for the landscape, to spot clubs with a broad range of possible finishes, or those consistently landing in certain spots. But don't mistake it for a crystal ball. It's a tool, not a gospel. Take the data, analyse it, and make your own calls. That's what being a data-led bettor is all about.
Every club, every finishing position
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 24.93 | 18.32 | 14.11 | 10.79 | 8.15 | 6.17 | 4.73 | 3.40 | 2.43 | 1.98 | 1.49 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.55 | 0.43 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 81.2 |
| West Ham | 22.50 | 17.50 | 14.29 | 11.09 | 8.64 | 6.44 | 4.98 | 3.94 | 2.68 | 2.02 | 1.79 | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 80.5 | |
| Wolves | 18.27 | 16.41 | 13.58 | 11.31 | 9.37 | 6.93 | 5.78 | 4.31 | 3.45 | 2.60 | 1.94 | 1.67 | 1.12 | 0.95 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 79.0 |
| Southampton | 11.09 | 12.18 | 12.28 | 11.50 | 10.14 | 8.31 | 7.11 | 5.57 | 4.77 | 3.77 | 3.12 | 2.51 | 1.91 | 1.42 | 1.22 | 0.86 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 76.1 |
| Millwall | 10.41 | 12.13 | 12.13 | 11.04 | 9.93 | 8.97 | 7.07 | 6.09 | 5.10 | 3.96 | 3.03 | 2.43 | 2.09 | 1.68 | 1.15 | 0.88 | 0.60 | 0.42 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 75.9 |
| Middlesbrough | 3.37 | 5.44 | 6.42 | 7.73 | 7.96 | 8.33 | 8.32 | 7.83 | 6.91 | 6.26 | 5.42 | 4.91 | 4.18 | 3.60 | 3.07 | 2.43 | 2.11 | 1.60 | 1.21 | 1.01 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 0.15 | 69.9 |
| Norwich | 2.60 | 4.49 | 5.67 | 6.31 | 7.36 | 7.89 | 7.71 | 7.28 | 7.00 | 6.79 | 5.88 | 5.80 | 4.69 | 4.28 | 3.62 | 3.01 | 2.40 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 1.27 | 1.04 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 68.6 |
| Sheffield Utd | 1.89 | 3.35 | 4.32 | 5.64 | 6.23 | 6.84 | 6.85 | 7.19 | 7.09 | 6.69 | 6.32 | 5.63 | 5.55 | 4.67 | 4.10 | 3.84 | 3.19 | 2.96 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 1.09 | 0.86 | 0.33 | 66.9 |
| Swansea | 1.02 | 1.91 | 3.08 | 4.03 | 5.02 | 5.66 | 6.30 | 6.50 | 6.39 | 7.08 | 6.74 | 6.35 | 5.49 | 5.58 | 4.90 | 4.83 | 4.37 | 3.49 | 2.80 | 2.72 | 2.24 | 1.59 | 1.18 | 0.72 | 64.6 |
| Lincoln | 0.97 | 1.71 | 2.76 | 3.76 | 4.39 | 5.70 | 5.87 | 6.54 | 6.62 | 6.88 | 6.58 | 6.33 | 6.22 | 5.59 | 5.46 | 4.78 | 4.42 | 3.80 | 3.36 | 2.73 | 2.09 | 1.67 | 1.13 | 0.65 | 64.2 |
| Birmingham | 0.62 | 1.20 | 2.13 | 2.89 | 3.79 | 4.37 | 5.05 | 5.78 | 6.14 | 6.53 | 6.61 | 6.75 | 6.16 | 5.97 | 6.00 | 5.51 | 4.79 | 4.78 | 3.84 | 3.24 | 2.84 | 2.26 | 1.70 | 1.07 | 62.7 |
| Cardiff | 0.55 | 1.25 | 2.10 | 2.95 | 3.57 | 4.83 | 5.12 | 5.74 | 5.93 | 6.21 | 6.28 | 6.19 | 6.24 | 6.54 | 5.99 | 5.56 | 4.99 | 4.22 | 3.98 | 3.44 | 3.09 | 2.38 | 1.75 | 1.10 | 62.6 |
| Derby | 0.60 | 1.34 | 1.86 | 2.97 | 3.74 | 4.24 | 5.32 | 5.48 | 6.04 | 6.21 | 6.25 | 6.39 | 6.47 | 6.17 | 5.87 | 5.56 | 5.23 | 4.42 | 3.94 | 3.59 | 2.90 | 2.44 | 1.77 | 1.20 | 62.5 |
| Wrexham | 0.50 | 0.89 | 1.64 | 2.20 | 2.88 | 3.62 | 4.31 | 4.91 | 5.53 | 5.70 | 5.99 | 6.22 | 6.45 | 6.41 | 6.44 | 5.91 | 5.51 | 5.20 | 4.78 | 3.98 | 3.65 | 3.09 | 2.52 | 1.69 | 61.1 |
| West Brom | 0.18 | 0.44 | 0.95 | 1.46 | 2.24 | 2.77 | 3.23 | 4.15 | 4.85 | 5.27 | 5.85 | 6.24 | 6.53 | 6.45 | 6.96 | 6.55 | 6.18 | 6.05 | 5.76 | 4.97 | 4.47 | 3.61 | 2.78 | 2.09 | 59.4 |
| QPR | 0.30 | 0.66 | 1.12 | 1.76 | 2.28 | 2.73 | 3.62 | 4.21 | 4.67 | 4.95 | 5.37 | 5.81 | 6.13 | 6.36 | 6.27 | 6.12 | 6.03 | 6.03 | 5.52 | 5.10 | 4.66 | 4.18 | 3.40 | 2.71 | 59.3 |
| Bristol City | 0.15 | 0.48 | 0.76 | 1.17 | 1.85 | 2.37 | 3.13 | 3.57 | 4.39 | 4.91 | 5.54 | 5.46 | 6.00 | 6.02 | 6.59 | 6.54 | 6.69 | 6.42 | 6.31 | 5.83 | 5.06 | 4.28 | 3.76 | 2.74 | 58.4 |
| Bolton | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.98 | 1.34 | 1.74 | 2.22 | 2.47 | 3.24 | 3.79 | 4.57 | 4.71 | 5.48 | 6.08 | 6.45 | 6.98 | 7.69 | 8.12 | 8.46 | 8.53 | 8.43 | 7.36 | 53.5 |
| Portsmouth | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 1.35 | 1.81 | 2.20 | 2.63 | 3.36 | 3.94 | 4.54 | 5.27 | 5.55 | 6.63 | 7.21 | 8.01 | 8.63 | 9.06 | 9.23 | 9.00 | 9.06 | 52.4 |
| Stoke City | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 1.41 | 1.81 | 2.60 | 3.16 | 3.40 | 4.04 | 4.75 | 5.49 | 6.09 | 7.30 | 7.84 | 8.86 | 8.98 | 9.99 | 10.81 | 10.13 | 51.6 |
| Preston | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.95 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 2.54 | 3.16 | 3.77 | 4.20 | 5.41 | 6.22 | 6.91 | 7.74 | 8.54 | 9.60 | 9.92 | 11.32 | 12.79 | 50.8 |
| Blackburn | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 0.76 | 1.06 | 1.26 | 1.56 | 1.92 | 2.49 | 3.02 | 3.99 | 4.15 | 5.39 | 6.14 | 6.71 | 8.09 | 8.62 | 9.54 | 10.75 | 11.43 | 12.10 | 50.8 |
| Watford | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.97 | 1.34 | 1.83 | 2.17 | 2.61 | 3.16 | 3.68 | 4.67 | 5.20 | 6.32 | 7.11 | 8.19 | 9.57 | 11.18 | 13.66 | 16.41 | 49.4 |
| Charlton | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.62 | 0.94 | 1.23 | 1.44 | 1.80 | 2.26 | 2.93 | 3.19 | 4.02 | 5.31 | 5.95 | 7.02 | 8.80 | 10.02 | 12.32 | 13.69 | 17.44 | 48.8 |
Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons. Club names link to that club's full model profile.
View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.
How it's built
Every one of the 552 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.
_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._