Where the model has them
The model has Millwall finishing around 2nd, with a 10.41% chance of winning the title and a 45.72% chance of making the top four. They're projected to earn 75.9 points. This is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 1.18 (higher than the league average of 1.00) and their defence multiplier of 0.85 (lower than the average of 1.00, meaning they concede less). Their attacking Elo is 1526, whilst their defending Elo sits at 1621. These numbers suggest a side strong at both ends of the pitch, but slightly more formidable in defence.
In attack
Millwall's attack is above average, with a strength multiplier of 1.18. Tairyk Arconte, who bagged 14 goals in 34 appearances last season, is the key man up front. Femi Azeez, with 7 assists in 36 games, is the main creator. Azeez also leads in shot volume with 73 attempts in 36 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Arconte with 14 goals and 4 assists, Azeez with 11 goals and 7 assists, and Josh Coburn with 9 goals. This attacking lineup gives Millwall a solid edge in the final third.
In defence
Defensively, Millwall are strong, with a multiplier of 0.85. Their defensive-actions leaders are Caleb Taylor with 4.54 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Ryan Leonard with 4.14 per 90, and Tristan Crama with 3.88 per 90. Ryan Leonard won 51 tackles in 25 appearances. This defensive solidity, combined with their strong attack, makes Millwall a well-rounded side.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw Millwall's attack multiplier move from 1.02 to 1.18, largely thanks to the arrival of Tairyk Arconte, who scored 14 goals last season. They lost Macaulay Langstaff, who chipped in with 4 goals. Defensively, the multiplier shifted slightly from 0.84 to 0.85. Mathis Servais came in, adding 84 defensive actions, whilst they lost Billy Mitchell. These changes have strengthened both ends of the pitch.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn't flag any specific weaknesses for Millwall. Their attack is above average, their defence is solid, and the transfer activity has only strengthened their position. The main risk to their projection would be if key players like Arconte or Azeez underperform or get injured. Otherwise, the data suggests a club well-positioned for a strong campaign.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Tairyk Arconte | 14 | 0.41 | 38% |
| Assists | Femi Azeez | 7 | 0.19 | 19% |
| Shots | Femi Azeez | 73 | 2.03 | 92% |
| Tackles won | Ryan Leonard | 51 | 2.04 | 88% |
| Fouls drawn | Josh Coburn | 39 | 1.44 | 74% |
| Fouls committed | Tristan Crama | 57 | 1.21 | 79% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Taylor | 4.54 | 27 |
| Ryan Leonard | 4.14 | 25 |
| Tristan Crama | 3.88 | 47 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Tairyk Arconte (14g), out Macaulay Langstaff (4g)
- Defence: in Mathis Servais (84 def actions), out Billy Mitchell
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._