Charlton: Championship 2026/27 Model Projection

Where the model has them

The model has Charlton finishing around 24th in the Championship this season, with a 43.45% chance of relegation and a 0.15% chance of the top four. This projection comes from their attack and defence strength, both of which are below the league average. Their attack strength multiplier is 0.76 (league average is 1.00), meaning they are weaker than average up front. Their defence multiplier is 1.08 (lower is better), showing a slightly leaky backline. Their attacking Elo is 1463 and their defending Elo is 1568, both of which reflect a side that will struggle to score enough goals and keep enough clean sheets to avoid the drop.

In attack

Charlton’s attack is below average, reflected in their attack strength multiplier of 0.76. Daniel Kanu is the standout player here, scoring 15 goals last season in 39 appearances, accounting for 39% of their goals. Kanu also led in shot volume with 75 shots in 39 games, appearing in 87% of matches. Greg Docherty chipped in with 3 assists in 38 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Kanu with 15 goals and 2 assists, Sonny Carey with 8 goals and 2 assists, and Charlie Kelman with 7 goals and 1 assist. Despite Kanu’s efforts, the attack remains a weak point.

In defence

The defence is only slightly below average with a defence multiplier of 1.08. Kayne Ramsay led in tackles won with 58 in 36 appearances, showing up in 81% of games. Docherty and Ramsay also top the defensive-actions chart, with Docherty averaging 4.02 per 90 and Ramsay 3.87 per 90. New arrival Nathan Asiimwe, with 3.81 defensive actions per 90, adds some solidity. Whilst these numbers look decent, the defence multiplier suggests they will still concede more than the average side.

What the window changed

The transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model’s numbers. The arrival of Daniel Kanu boosted the attack multiplier from 0.74 to 0.76. Kanu’s 15 goals last season are expected to make a difference, though not enough to lift the attack above average. Defensively, Nathan Asiimwe’s arrival (97 defensive actions last season) improved the defence multiplier from 1.00 to 1.08. James Bree’s departure (4 goals and solid defensive contributions) weakened both attack and defence, but Asiimwe’s addition slightly offsets this loss.

Weaknesses and risks

The main risks to Charlton’s projection are their below-average attack and slightly leaky defence. With an attack multiplier of 0.76 and a defence multiplier of 1.08, they face an uphill battle to score enough goals and keep enough clean sheets to avoid relegation. Kanu’s goals will help, but the overall attack remains weak. The defence, whilst not terrible, is not strong enough to cover for the attacking shortcomings. These factors combined point to a tough season ahead, with a high risk of finishing in the bottom three.

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Key players (last season)

Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)

Transfer impact (model)

• Attack: in Daniel Kanu (15g), out James Bree (4g)
• Defence: in Nathan Asiimwe (97 def actions), out James Bree

_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._