Where the model has them
The model has Portsmouth finishing around 22nd place this season. There's a 0.01% chance of the title, a 0.43% shot at the top four, and a 27.28% chance of relegation. Expected points sit at 52.4. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, along with their Elo ratings. Their attack multiplier is 0.75 (league average is 1.00, so below average) and their defence multiplier is 0.98 (lower than 1.00 means stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1498 and their defending Elo is 1562.
In attack
Portsmouth's attack is rated below the Championship average. The attack multiplier of 0.75 shows this. Adrian Segecic was their top scorer last season with 10 goals in 37 appearances. Josh Murphy provided the most assists with 6 in just 16 games, and also had the highest shot volume with 27 shots. Despite these contributions, the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer. Segecic's 10 goals were the best in the squad, but that's not enough to lift the attack above average.
In defence
Defensively, Portsmouth looks slightly stronger. Their defence multiplier of 0.98 is just below the average of 1.00, indicating a solid backline. Ebou Adams leads in defensive actions with 5.11 per 90 minutes, followed closely by Terry Devlin with 5.1 per 90. Madiodio Dia also contributes with 4.92 defensive actions per 90. Devlin also won 76 tackles last season, showing his importance in breaking up opposition play.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some changes that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier dropped from 0.85 to 0.75, and the defence multiplier improved from 1.07 to 0.98. Odin Bailey, who scored 4 goals last season, was the key attacking arrival. On the defensive side, Ebou Adams came in and contributed 156 defensive actions. Notable departures were Millenic Alli, who scored 2 goals, and Andre Dozzell. The net effect was a slight weakening of the attack and a strengthening of the defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Portsmouth is their below-average attack. They lack a high-volume scorer and their attack multiplier of 0.75 reflects this. The loss of Millenic Alli's 2 goals in the transfer window didn't help. Whilst their defence is solid, the attack's limitations are the biggest risk to their projected finish around 22nd place.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Adrian Segecic | 10 | 0.27 | 22% |
| Assists | Josh Murphy | 6 | 0.38 | 38% |
| Shots | Josh Murphy | 27 | 1.69 | 75% |
| Tackles won | Terry Devlin | 76 | 2.05 | 89% |
| Fouls drawn | Ebou Adams | 78 | 2 | 82% |
| Fouls committed | Ebou Adams | 56 | 1.44 | 74% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Ebou Adams | 5.11 | 39 |
| Terry Devlin | 5.1 | 37 |
| Madiodio Dia | 4.92 | 14 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Odin Bailey (4g), out Millenic Alli (2g)
- Defence: in Ebou Adams (156 def actions), out Andre Dozzell
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._