Bolton: Championship 2026/27 Model Projection

Where the model has them

Bolton's projected finish is around 22nd place, with a 0.01% chance of winning the title, an 0.83% shot at the top four, and a 24.31% risk of relegation. The expected points tally is 53.5. This outlook is driven by an attack strength multiplier of 0.86 (league average is 1.00, with higher numbers indicating a stronger attack) and a defence multiplier of 1.08 (lower numbers signify a stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1512 and defending Elo is 1522, both reflecting their promotion from a lower division.

In attack

Bolton's attack is rated below the league average, with a strength multiplier of 0.86. Key attacking players include Rúben Rodrigues, who scored 4 goals in 14 appearances last season, accounting for 21% of games, and also provided 2 assists in 14 appearances (14% of games). Thierry Gale led in shot volume with 48 shots in 37 appearances (65% of games). The top scorers in the squad are Sam Dalby with 11 goals and 4 assists, Kyliane Dong with 5 goals and 3 assists, and Thierry Gale with 5 goals and 4 assists. The lack of a proven high-volume scorer remains a concern, with Sam Dalby’s 11 goals last season being the best output.

In defence

Defensively, Bolton is rated slightly worse than the average team, with a defence multiplier of 1.08. The defensive-actions leaders include Ethan Erhahon with 4.84 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Akin Famewo with 4.26 per 90, and Max Conway with 3.9 per 90. Akin Famewo, who joined in the transfer window, won 21 tackles in 15 appearances (80% of games). Despite these efforts, the defence is seen as a soft spot, particularly given the higher defence multiplier.

What the window changed

The transfer window saw a shift in the attack multiplier from 0.93 to 0.86 and the defence multiplier from 1.21 to 1.08. The key attacking arrival was Kyliane Dong, who scored 5 goals last season. The notable departure was Amario Cozier-Duberry, who contributed 9 goals. Defensively, Akin Famewo arrived and contributed 33 defensive actions, whilst Jordi Osei-Tutu left. These changes slightly strengthened the defence but weakened the attack, reflecting the net loss of attacking output.

Weaknesses and risks

The main risks to Bolton's projection stem from their below-average attack, the absence of a high-volume scorer, and a defence that is only marginally better than average. The loss of Amario Cozier-Duberry’s 9 goals exacerbates the attacking woes. Being newly promoted, much of the squad is unproven at this level, adding to the relegation risk.

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Key players (last season)

Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)

Transfer impact (model)

• Attack: in Kyliane Dong (5g), out Amario Cozier-Duberry (9g)
• Defence: in Akin Famewo (33 def actions), out Jordi Osei-Tutu

_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._