Where the model has them
The model has West Brom finishing around 15th in the Championship this season, with a 0.18% chance of winning the title, a 3.03% chance of making the top four, and an 8.47% chance of relegation. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, as well as their Elo ratings. With an attack strength multiplier of 0.8 (1.00 being the league average), they're below par in the final third. Their defence multiplier of 0.86 (lower is better here) suggests a solid backline, though still not elite. Their attacking Elo of 1488 and defending Elo of 1579 reflect a team that's more comfortable defending than attacking.
In attack
West Brom's attack is below the league average, reflected in their 0.8 multiplier. Aune Selland Heggebø was their top scorer last season with 9 goals in 45 appearances, but that's hardly prolific. Michael Johnston provided 9 assists in 34 games, showing some creativity, but it's Isaac Price who offers the most shot volume with 70 attempts in 45 appearances. Despite this, their top scorers, Heggebø, Price, and George Campbell, didn't exactly light up the league. Without a proven high-volume scorer, their attack looks like it'll struggle to consistently find the net.
In defence
Defensively, West Brom look more assured, with a 0.86 multiplier indicating they'll concede fewer goals than most. Krystian Bielik leads the way in defensive actions with 4.93 per 90 minutes, followed by Ousmane Diakité and Callum Styles. Styles, in particular, won 92 tackles in 44 appearances, a testament to his tenacity in the midfield. This defensive solidity should help them avoid the relegation zone, but it won't be enough to push them into the top half unless their attack improves significantly.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor tweaks rather than wholesale changes. The arrival of Cole Deeming, who contributed 0 goals but 14 defensive actions last season, nudged the attack multiplier down slightly to 0.8 and the defence multiplier down to 0.86. Daniel Imray's departure, after scoring 3 goals and contributing to the defence, had a marginal impact, moving the attack multiplier up from 0.82 and the defence up from 0.99. These shifts are small, suggesting the window didn't dramatically alter West Brom's outlook.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to West Brom's projection stem from their below-average attack and the lack of a high-volume scorer. If they can't improve their goal output, they'll rely heavily on their defence to keep them afloat. This makes their season a tightrope walk between mid-table mediocrity and the relegation dogfight. The model's numbers reflect this precarious balance, with a projected finish around 15th and a notable chance of dropping into the bottom three.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Aune Selland Heggebø | 9 | 0.2 | 16% |
| Assists | Michael Johnston | 9 | 0.26 | 21% |
| Shots | Isaac Price | 70 | 1.56 | 78% |
| Tackles won | Callum Styles | 92 | 2.09 | 80% |
| Fouls drawn | Aune Selland Heggebø | 53 | 1.18 | 67% |
| Fouls committed | Aune Selland Heggebø | 67 | 1.49 | 76% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Krystian Bielik | 4.93 | 17 |
| Ousmane Diakité | 3.9 | 35 |
| Callum Styles | 3.8 | 44 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Cole Deeming (0g), out Daniel Imray (3g)
- Defence: in Cole Deeming (14 def actions), out Daniel Imray
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._