Where the model has them
The model projects Southampton to finish around 3rd in the Championship this season, with an 11.09% chance of winning the title and a 47.06% chance of securing a top-four finish. Relegation is a distant worry at 0.17%. Expected points sit at 76.1. This projection is driven by an attack strength multiplier of 1.24 (league average is 1.00, higher means stronger) and a defence multiplier of 0.91 (league average is 1.00, lower means stronger, concedes fewer). The attacking Elo stands at 1590, whilst the defensive Elo is 1573.
In attack
Southampton's attack, whilst above average, has taken a slight hit this window. The attack strength multiplier dropped from 1.33 to 1.24. Key players to watch include Cyle Larin, who scored 9 goals last season, and Leo Scienza, who provided 10 assists and took 68 shots. Finn Azaz leads the current squad in attacking output with 11 goals and 7 assists last season. The loss of Adam Armstrong, who scored 13 goals last term, leaves a gap in consistent goalscoring.
In defence
Defensively, Southampton looks solid with a multiplier of 0.91. Caspar Jander leads the way with 111 tackles won last season and a rate of 5.12 defensive actions per 90 minutes. Welington and Cameron Bragg also contribute significantly on the defensive end, with 4.58 and 4.56 defensive actions per 90 respectively. This suggests a robust backline that should limit opponents.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. Lewis Dobbin arrived and is expected to contribute, having scored 9 goals last season. On the defensive end, James Bree joined and brought his 87 defensive actions from last season. The departure of Adam Armstrong, however, impacted both ends of the pitch, reducing the attack multiplier slightly whilst also weakening the defence through his pressing and work rate.
Weaknesses and risks
The model flags two main weaknesses. Firstly, Southampton lacked a proven high-volume scorer last season, with Finn Azaz's 11 goals the best in the squad. Secondly, the net attacking output took a hit with the departure of Adam Armstrong, who scored 13 goals last term. These factors combine to present the main risks to the model's projection: inconsistent goalscoring and a potential over-reliance on a few key players in attack.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Cyle Larin | 9 | 0.28 | 28% |
| Assists | Leo Scienza | 10 | 0.25 | 23% |
| Shots | Leo Scienza | 68 | 1.7 | 80% |
| Tackles won | Caspar Jander | 111 | 2.92 | 90% |
| Fouls drawn | Leo Scienza | 110 | 2.75 | 93% |
| Fouls committed | Caspar Jander | 53 | 1.39 | 79% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Caspar Jander | 5.12 | 38 |
| Welington | 4.58 | 19 |
| Cameron Bragg | 4.56 | 17 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Lewis Dobbin (9g), out Adam Armstrong (13g)
- Defence: in James Bree (87 def actions), out Adam Armstrong
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._