Where the model has them
The model sees Swansea finishing around 10th place this season, with a 1.02% chance of winning the title, a 10.04% shot at the top four, and a 3.49% risk of relegation. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in the multipliers and Elo ratings. With an attack multiplier of 1.09 and a defence multiplier of 1.05, Swansea are slightly above average in both areas. Their attacking Elo of 1523 and defensive Elo of 1562 further support this balanced outlook.
In attack
Swansea's attack is just above the league average, as shown by the 1.09 multiplier. Key to this are players like Žan Vipotnik, who scored 22 goals last season, and Josh Tymon, who provided 9 assists. Leo Walta, despite primarily being a defender, chipped in with 10 goals and 3 assists, adding to the attacking threat. The arrival of Joseph Opoku, who netted 10 goals last season, bolsters this further. This attack, whilst not explosive, is reliable and should contribute to a solid points tally.
In defence
Defensively, Swansea are also slightly above average with a 1.05 multiplier. The defensive-actions leaders here are Moussa Kounfolo Yeo, averaging 5.08 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, and Gonçalo Franco, with 4.99 per 90. Joel Ward adds to this with 3.84 per 90. These numbers show a sturdy backline capable of limiting the damage, which is crucial in a competitive league like the Championship.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw key changes that nudged the model's numbers upwards. The arrival of Joseph Opoku, who scored 10 goals last season, pushed the attack multiplier from 0.96 to 1.09. Defensively, Leo Walta’s addition, known for his 30 defensive actions, moved the defence multiplier from 1.02 to 1.05. The departure of Ethan Galbraith, who contributed both goals and defensive actions, was offset by these new signings. Overall, the window strengthened both ends of the pitch.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn’t flag any specific weaknesses for Swansea this season. The balanced attack and defence, coupled with key acquisitions in the transfer window, suggest a stable campaign ahead. The main risk to the projection would be if key players like Vipotnik or Walta suffer injuries, which could disrupt the finely balanced outlook the model currently projects.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Žan Vipotnik | 22 | 0.51 | 42% |
| Assists | Josh Tymon | 9 | 0.2 | 21% |
| Shots | Leo Walta | 47 | 2.14 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Gonçalo Franco | 117 | 2.66 | 89% |
| Fouls drawn | Ronald | 90 | 2.05 | 93% |
| Fouls committed | Marko Stamenić | 50 | 1.43 | 86% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Moussa Kounfolo Yeo | 5.08 | 8 |
| Gonçalo Franco | 4.99 | 44 |
| Joel Ward | 3.84 | 14 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Joseph Opoku (10g), out Ethan Galbraith (3g)
- Defence: in Leo Walta (30 def actions), out Ethan Galbraith
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._