Where the model has them
The model projects Wrexham to finish around 13th in the Championship this season. There's a 0.50% chance they'll win the title, a 5.23% chance of finishing in the top four, and a 7.29% chance of relegation. They're expected to accumulate 61.1 points. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 1.11 (1.00 is the league average, so this is slightly above average) and a defence multiplier of 1.16 (again, 1.00 is average, but here lower is better, so this is a concern). Their attacking Elo is 1550 and defending Elo is 1552, both around the mid-table mark.
In attack
Wrexham's attack is slightly above average with a strength multiplier of 1.11. Davis Keillor-Dunn, who joined in the summer, is expected to be their top scorer with a projected 13 goals, based on his 13 goals last season. Kieffer Moore leads in shot volume with 62 shots in 39 appearances. Other key attacking players include Josh Windass with 15 goals and 5 assists last season, and Lewis O'Brien with 6 assists. Their attack is solid but not spectacular.
In defence
Defensively, Wrexham are projected to be slightly below average with a defence multiplier of 1.16. Their defensive-actions leaders are George Dobson with 4.26 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Lewis Brunt with 4.25, and Oliver Rathbone with 4.01. Despite these efforts, the model rates their defence as leakier than average, which is a concern.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw Wrexham's attack multiplier drop slightly from 1.12 to 1.11, whilst their defence improved from 1.1 to 1.16. Key attacking addition Davis Keillor-Dunn should add goals, whilst Zak Vyner's arrival strengthens the defence with his 87 defensive actions last season. The departure of Issa Kaboré, who didn't score but was defensively solid, is a slight loss but seems to have been offset by new arrivals.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Wrexham is their defence, rated as leakier than average with a defence multiplier of 1.16. This could be the Achilles' heel that stops them climbing higher than mid-table, despite a competent attack. If their defence doesn't tighten up, they could find themselves looking over their shoulder more than they'd like as the season progresses.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Davis Keillor-Dunn | 13 | 0.43 | 37% |
| Assists | Lewis O'Brien | 6 | 0.16 | 11% |
| Shots | Kieffer Moore | 62 | 1.59 | 74% |
| Tackles won | Max Cleworth | 74 | 1.8 | 83% |
| Fouls drawn | Lewis O'Brien | 50 | 1.32 | 76% |
| Fouls committed | Callum Doyle | 31 | 0.91 | 71% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| George Dobson | 4.26 | 40 |
| Lewis Brunt | 4.25 | 9 |
| Oliver Rathbone | 4.01 | 26 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Davis Keillor-Dunn (13g), out Issa Kaboré (0g)
- Defence: in Zak Vyner (87 def actions), out Issa Kaboré
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._