Where the model has them
The model projects Cardiff to finish around 14th, with a 0.55% chance of the title, 6.85% for the top four, and a 5.24% chance of relegation. This gives them an expected points total of 62.6. The model's view is driven by their attack and defence strength, with both multipliers close to the league average. Cardiff's attacking Elo is 1551 and their defending Elo is also 1551, reflecting their status as a newly promoted side.
In attack
Cardiff's attack strength multiplier is 1.05, slightly above the league average of 1.00. This is largely thanks to Yousef Salech, who scored 14 goals in 33 appearances last season and took 76 shots. Salech is crucial, accounting for 39% of their goals and 85% of their shot volume. Ollie Tanner chipped in with 12 assists in 27 games, a 37% assist rate. Rubin Colwill and Callum Robinson are the other key threats, with Colwill contributing 8 goals and 6 assists, and Robinson adding 8 goals and 3 assists. Despite these assets, the attack is only marginally above average.
In defence
The defence multiplier of 1.06 suggests Cardiff's defence is slightly below average, conceding more than the league mean. The defensive-actions leaders are Alex Robertson with 3.45 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Perry Ng with 3.39, and Gabriel Osho with 3.33. Joel Bagan won 76 tackles in 44 appearances, showing his importance at the back. However, the loss of Ryan Wintle will be felt, and the defence remains a slight soft spot.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minimal change to the model's view of Cardiff. The attack multiplier stayed at 1.05 and the defence moved from 1.1 to 1.06. The departure of Omari Kellyman, who scored 10 goals last season, is a notable loss. Defensively, the exit of Ryan Wintle impacts their solidity. Overall, the window did not materially alter the model's projections.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Cardiff revolve around their defence, rated as leakier than average, and the fact that much of their squad is unproven at Championship level. These factors combine to present the primary risks to their projected mid-table finish.
---
Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Yousef Salech | 14 | 0.42 | 39% |
| Assists | Ollie Tanner | 12 | 0.44 | 37% |
| Shots | Yousef Salech | 76 | 2.3 | 85% |
| Tackles won | Joel Bagan | 76 | 1.73 | 86% |
| Fouls drawn | Perry Ng | 53 | 1.56 | 82% |
| Fouls committed | Yousef Salech | 56 | 1.7 | 82% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Robertson | 3.45 | 33 |
| Perry Ng | 3.39 | 34 |
| Gabriel Osho | 3.33 | 21 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in -, out Omari Kellyman (10g)
- Defence: in -, out Ryan Wintle
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._