Where the model has them
The model has Stoke City finishing around 23rd, with a 0.01% chance of winning the title, a 0.34% chance of making the top four, and a 30.94% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 51.6. This projection is driven by Stoke's attack and defence strength, reflected in their attack multiplier of 0.75 (below the league average of 1.00) and their defence multiplier of 0.99 (just below the average of 1.00, indicating a slightly stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1460, and their defending Elo is 1554.
In attack
Stoke City’s attack is rated below the league average, with an attack multiplier of 0.75. The key attacking players are Milan Smit, who scored 11 goals last season, and Sorba Thomas, who provided 11 assists. Million Manhoef had the highest shot volume with 55 shots in 44 appearances. Despite these contributions, the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Smit’s 11 goals being the best output from last season. This below-average attack strength is a significant factor in the model's projection.
In defence
Defensively, Stoke City is slightly above average with a defence multiplier of 0.99. The defensive-actions leaders are Maksym Talovierov with 5.3 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Djibril Soumaré with 4.79, and Ben Gibson with 4.58. Junior Tchamadeu won 53 tackles in 26 appearances. Whilst this defence is competent, it isn’t a standout strength, and the model sees it as just below average.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some minor adjustments to Stoke's attack and defence. The attack multiplier moved from 0.8 to 0.75 with the arrival of Milan Smit, who scored 11 goals last season, offsetting the departure of Divin Mubama, who scored 5 goals. Defensively, the arrival of Svante Ingelsson, who had 105 defensive actions last season, nudged the defence multiplier from 1.01 to 0.99. Ashley Phillips’ departure had a minor impact. These changes were marginal, but they slightly strengthened both ends of the pitch.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Stoke City’s projection lie in their attack. The model flags the lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. The net loss of attacking output from the transfer window, with Divin Mubama’s 5 goals not sufficiently replaced, compounds this issue. These weaknesses, combined with a defence that is only slightly above average, drive the model’s relegation probability of 30.94% and the projected finish around 23rd.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Milan Smit | 11 | 0.29 | 21% |
| Assists | Sorba Thomas | 11 | 0.25 | 23% |
| Shots | Million Manhoef | 55 | 1.25 | 66% |
| Tackles won | Junior Tchamadeu | 53 | 2.04 | 92% |
| Fouls drawn | Favour Fawunmi | 16 | 1.78 | 78% |
| Fouls committed | Svante Ingelsson | 73 | 1.87 | 87% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Maksym Talovierov | 5.3 | 16 |
| Djibril Soumaré | 4.79 | 25 |
| Ben Gibson | 4.58 | 12 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Milan Smit (11g), out Divin Mubama (5g)
- Defence: in Svante Ingelsson (105 def actions), out Ashley Phillips
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._