Where the model has them
The model has Lincoln projected to finish around 10th in the Championship this season. The probabilities paint a clear picture: a 0.97% chance of lifting the title, a 9.21% chance of grabbing a top-four spot, and a 3.45% risk of relegation. This outlook is driven by their attack and defence strength multipliers, alongside their Elo ratings. With an attack multiplier of 0.99 and a defence multiplier of 0.95, they're just below the league average in both departments. Their attacking Elo stands at 1570, whilst their defending Elo is slightly higher at 1580, reflecting their promotion from the division below.
In attack
Lincoln's attack is hovering just under the league average, as shown by their 0.99 attack strength multiplier. Key to their offensive efforts last season were Jack Moylan, who chipped in with 10 goals and 6 assists in 30 appearances, and Reeco Hackett-Fairchild, the squad's top scorer with 11 goals and 8 assists. Ben House led the shot volume with 33 efforts in 33 games. Despite these contributions, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Hackett-Fairchild's 11 goals being the best last season. This below-average attacking output is a key factor in the model's projection.
In defence
On the defensive side, Lincoln's 0.95 defence strength multiplier suggests they're slightly better than average at keeping the ball out of their own net. Leading the way in defensive actions were Ben House with a rate of 4.73 per 90 minutes, followed by Conor McGrandles at 4.18 and Ivan Varfolomeev at 3.86. House also topped the tackles won chart with 82 across 33 appearances. This defensive solidity, slightly above the league average, offers a counterbalance to their slightly below-average attack.
What the window changed
The summer window saw a net loss in attacking output, with the departure of James Collins (4 goals last season) not fully offset by the arrival of Callum Elder, who contributed 1 goal last season. Defensively, the addition of Elder, who racked up 85 defensive actions last term, strengthens the backline. However, the loss of Adam Jackson leaves a gap. These changes nudged the attack multiplier down from 1.05 to 0.99 and the defence multiplier down from 0.98 to 0.95, reflecting a slight overall weakening.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Lincoln's projection stem from their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and the net loss of attacking output in the transfer window. Additionally, as a newly promoted side, much of their squad is unproven at this level, which introduces an element of uncertainty. These factors, combined with their slightly below-average attack, underpin the model's cautious projection of a mid-table finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Jack Moylan | 10 | 0.33 | 30% |
| Assists | Jack Moylan | 6 | 0.2 | 20% |
| Shots | Ben House | 33 | 1 | 67% |
| Tackles won | Ben House | 82 | 2.48 | 97% |
| Fouls drawn | Conor McGrandles | 65 | 1.48 | 77% |
| Fouls committed | Ben House | 80 | 2.42 | 88% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Ben House | 4.73 | 33 |
| Conor McGrandles | 4.18 | 44 |
| Ivan Varfolomeev | 3.86 | 31 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Callum Elder (1g), out James Collins (4g)
- Defence: in Callum Elder (85 def actions), out Adam Jackson
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._