Where the model has them
The model projects Blackburn to finish around 24th in the Championship this season. The probabilities are stark: a 0.01% chance of winning the title, 0.27% chance of making the top four, and a 34.27% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 50.8. This projection is driven by Blackburn's attack and defence strength, captured by their attack and defence multipliers, and their Elo ratings. The attack multiplier of 0.73 (league average is 1.00) shows an attack below the league average, whilst the defence multiplier of 0.99 (lower is better) indicates a defence close to the league average. Their attacking Elo of 1454 and defending Elo of 1581 further cement this imbalance.
In attack
Blackburn's attacking picture is underwhelming, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.73, well below the league average. Key players in attack last season included Andri Guðjohnsen, who scored 7 goals in 26 appearances, and Ryoya Morishita, who provided 9 assists in 37 games. Yuki Ohashi led in shot volume with 66 shots in 45 appearances. Despite these contributions, the attack lacked a high-volume scorer, with Ohashi's 10 goals being the best in the squad. This below-average attack strength is a significant factor in the model's low projection for the season.
In defence
Defensively, Blackburn is slightly above average, with a defence multiplier of 0.99. Lewis Miller led the way with 56 tackles won in 29 appearances. Sean McLoughlin and Kristi Montgomery also stood out with strong defensive-action rates per 90 minutes, at 4.15 and 4.04 respectively. Whilst the defence isn't a major weak spot, it isn't strong enough to compensate for the below-average attack.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor tweaks to Blackburn's attack and defence. The attack multiplier edged up from 0.71 to 0.73, and the defence multiplier improved from 0.97 to 0.99. Notable departures included Ryan Hedges, who scored 1 goal last season, and defender Eiran Cashin. The arrival of Connor O'Riordan, who contributed 82 defensive actions last season, slightly bolstered the defence. These changes were marginal and didn't significantly alter the model's view of Blackburn's chances.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Blackburn's projection lie in their below-average attack and the lack of a proven high-volume scorer. With an attack multiplier of 0.73 and the best goal-scorer last season netting just 10 goals, the model sees a real struggle for consistent goal-scoring. This, combined with a defence that, whilst solid, isn't exceptional, paints a grim picture for their season. The model's relegation probability of 34.27% reflects these underlying weaknesses.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Andri Guðjohnsen | 7 | 0.27 | 23% |
| Assists | Ryoya Morishita | 9 | 0.24 | 24% |
| Shots | Yuki Ohashi | 66 | 1.47 | 80% |
| Tackles won | Lewis Miller | 56 | 1.93 | 76% |
| Fouls drawn | Todd Cantwell | 50 | 1.85 | 82% |
| Fouls committed | Yuki Ohashi | 59 | 1.31 | 73% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Lewis Miller | 4.93 | 29 |
| Sean McLoughlin | 4.15 | 43 |
| Kristi Montgomery | 4.04 | 20 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in -, out Ryan Hedges (1g)
- Defence: in Connor O'Riordan (82 def actions), out Eiran Cashin
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._