Where the model has them
The model has West Ham finishing around 1st, with a 22.50% chance of the title and a 65.37% shot at the top four. Relegation is a near impossibility at 0.03%. The expected points tally is 80.5. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, plus their Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 1.25, meaning their attack is 25% stronger than the league average. Their defence multiplier is 0.81, showing a defence that's 19% stronger than average, conceding fewer goals. The attacking Elo is 1618, the defending Elo 1634. They're stepping down a level, not up, after relegation from the tier above.
In attack
West Ham's attack, whilst above average, isn't setting the Championship alight. The strength multiplier of 1.25 indicates a solid, if unspectacular, attacking unit. Jarrod Bowen is the key man, with 9 goals and 9 assists last season from 37 appearances. He also took 48 shots, more than any other player. The top scorers in the squad are Bowen with 9 goals and 9 assists, Valentín Castellanos with 6 goals and 3 assists, and Tomáš Souček with 5 goals. There's no proven high-volume scorer, though, with Bowen's 9 goals the best in the squad last season.
In defence
Defensively, West Ham looks solid. The defence multiplier of 0.81 shows a unit that's 19% stronger than the average Championship side, conceding fewer goals. The defensive-actions leaders are Oliver Scarles with 5.93 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Mohamadou Kanté with 5.68, and Soungoutou Magassa with 5.56. Pablo Felipe won 20 tackles in just 13 appearances, a strong showing. This defensive strength is a clear plus for their projected finish.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some tweaks but no major overhauls. The attack multiplier moved from 1.46 to 1.25, reflecting a net loss in attacking output. The key attacking arrival was Callum Marshall, who scored 2 goals last season. The notable departure was Callum Wilson, who scored 7 goals. Defensively, the multiplier moved from 0.82 to 0.81, a slight improvement. Kaelan Casey arrived, contributing 37 defensive actions, whilst Mateus Fernandes left. The overall impact was a slight downgrade in attack and a minor upgrade in defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model sees a few weaknesses that could impact West Ham's projection. There's no proven high-volume scorer in the squad, with Jarrod Bowen's 9 goals last season the best on offer. The net attacking output decreased in the transfer window, losing Callum Wilson's 7 goals. They're stepping down a level after relegation, so the squad may yet be broken up, and the model has no record of them at this level. These factors combine to present the main risks to their projected finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Jarrod Bowen | 9 | 0.24 | 24% |
| Assists | Jarrod Bowen | 9 | 0.24 | 22% |
| Shots | Jarrod Bowen | 48 | 1.3 | 87% |
| Tackles won | Pablo Felipe | 20 | 1.54 | 85% |
| Fouls drawn | Jarrod Bowen | 49 | 1.32 | 70% |
| Fouls committed | Pablo Felipe | 21 | 1.62 | 85% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Oliver Scarles | 5.93 | 13 |
| Mohamadou Kanté | 5.68 | 11 |
| Soungoutou Magassa | 5.56 | 21 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Callum Marshall (2g), out Callum Wilson (7g)
- Defence: in Kaelan Casey (37 def actions), out Mateus Fernandes
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._