Where the model has them
The model projects Preston to finish around 24th in the Championship this season. The chances of them winning the title are 0.01%, making a top-four finish a 0.30% probability. The real concern is relegation, with a 34.02% chance of dropping down. The expected points tally is 50.8. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, as well as their Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier stands at 0.82 (1.00 is the league average, anything lower indicates a weaker attack), whilst the defence multiplier is 1.11 (1.00 is average, higher numbers mean a weaker defence). Their attacking Elo is 1501 and their defending Elo is 1527.
In attack
Preston's attack is rated below the league average, reflected in their attack strength multiplier of 0.82. Last season, Milutin Osmajić led the way with 8 goals in 27 appearances, contributing 30% of the team's goals. Jordan Thompson provided 3 assists in 19 appearances. Alfie Devine had the highest shot volume with 49 shots in 44 appearances. Devine also sits as one of the top scorers in the squad with 8 goals and 6 assists last season. Despite these contributions, no player emerged as a high-volume scorer, with Devine's 8 goals being the best output. This lack of a consistent goal threat underpins the below-average attack rating.
In defence
On the defensive side, Preston's defence multiplier of 1.11 suggests they are slightly weaker than the league average. The defensive-actions leaders include Alistair McCann with 5.63 actions per 90, Pol Valentín with 4.78, and Andrew Moran with 4.65. Benjamin Whiteman won 78 tackles in 42 appearances. Whilst these players contribute solidly in defensive duties, the slightly above-average defence multiplier indicates room for improvement.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor adjustments to Preston's attack and defence ratings. The attack multiplier moved from 0.9 to 0.82, and the defence from 1.12 to 1.11. Callum Lang arrived and contributed both offensively (2 goals last season) and defensively (18 defensive actions). The notable departure was Lewis Dobbin, who scored 9 goals last season. The net effect was a slight weakening in attacking output, offset by a minor improvement in defensive solidity.
Weaknesses and risks
The main weaknesses the model sees for Preston are the lack of a proven high-volume scorer, an attack rated below the league average, and a defence that, whilst not terrible, is still leakier than the average. The loss of Lewis Dobbin’s goals in the transfer window further exacerbates the attacking concerns. These factors combined pose the biggest risks to the model's projection, particularly the threat of relegation.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Milutin Osmajić | 8 | 0.3 | 30% |
| Assists | Jordan Thompson | 3 | 0.16 | 16% |
| Shots | Alfie Devine | 49 | 1.11 | 66% |
| Tackles won | Benjamin Whiteman | 78 | 1.86 | 86% |
| Fouls drawn | Callum Lang | 19 | 1.46 | 92% |
| Fouls committed | Liam Lindsay | 34 | 1.36 | 80% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Alistair McCann | 5.63 | 26 |
| Pol Valentín | 4.78 | 33 |
| Andrew Moran | 4.65 | 10 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Callum Lang (2g), out Lewis Dobbin (9g)
- Defence: in Callum Lang (18 def actions), out Harrison Armstrong
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._