Where the model has them
The model has Derby finishing around 13th place next season, with a 0.60% chance of lifting the title, a 6.78% shot at the top four, and a 5.42% risk of relegation. These projections are driven by the attack and defence strength multipliers and the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 1.05, slightly above the league average of 1.00, indicating a moderately strong attack. The defence multiplier is 1.06, slightly above the average, meaning the defence is rated as slightly below average. The attacking Elo is 1539, and the defending Elo is 1576, both of which contribute to the overall expected points tally of 62.5 for the season.
In attack
Derby's attack is just above average, reflected in the 1.05 multiplier. Filip Bilbija is the standout player here, scoring 16 goals in 31 appearances last season, accounting for 39% of Derby's goals. Joe Ward provided 8 assists in 37 games, contributing to 22% of the team's assists. Patrick Agyemang led in shot volume with 60 shots in 37 appearances, playing in 84% of games. The top scorers in the squad are Bilbija with 16 goals and 3 assists, Carlton Morris with 11 goals and 2 assists, and Agyemang with 10 goals and 3 assists. Despite these contributions, the attack is only slightly above average, which tempers the overall projection.
In defence
On the defensive side, Derby is rated slightly below average with a 1.06 multiplier. The defensive-actions leaders are Oscar Fraulo with 4.79 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Matthew Clarke with 4.1 per 90, and Lewis Travis with 3.88 per 90. Travis also won 67 tackles in 27 appearances, playing in 96% of games. Whilst these players contribute solidly, the overall defence is seen as a soft spot, which is a key factor in the model's projection of Derby finishing around mid-table.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model's numbers. The arrival of Filip Bilbija, who scored 16 goals and contributed 54 defensive actions last season, slightly lowered the attack multiplier from 1.08 to 1.05 but raised the defence multiplier from 1.00 to 1.06. The departure of Ben Brereton Díaz, who scored 7 goals last season, and Ebou Adams on the defensive end, had a notable impact. Overall, the net effect was a slight downgrade in both attack and defence, aligning with the current projections.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Derby is their below-average defence, rated at 1.06. This leakiness is the primary risk to the projection, potentially dragging their points tally down and making a top-four finish unlikely. The reliance on a few key players in attack and the slight downgrade in defensive solidity post-transfers are the key factors to watch.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Filip Bilbija | 16 | 0.52 | 39% |
| Assists | Joe Ward | 8 | 0.22 | 22% |
| Shots | Patrick Agyemang | 60 | 1.62 | 84% |
| Tackles won | Lewis Travis | 67 | 2.48 | 96% |
| Fouls drawn | Lewis Travis | 49 | 1.81 | 89% |
| Fouls committed | Patrick Agyemang | 64 | 1.73 | 89% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Fraulo | 4.79 | 23 |
| Matthew Clarke | 4.1 | 44 |
| Lewis Travis | 3.88 | 27 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Filip Bilbija (16g), out Ben Brereton Díaz (7g)
- Defence: in Filip Bilbija (54 def actions), out Ebou Adams
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._