Monte Carlo · 20,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: Championship 2026–27
Published
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 20,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wolves | 52.10 | 20.31 | 10.95 | 6.72 | 3.87 | 2.60 | 1.38 | 0.98 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 89.3 | ||||||
| 2West Ham | 14.57 | 18.68 | 15.55 | 13.07 | 10.28 | 8.11 | 6.03 | 4.52 | 3.06 | 2.26 | 1.40 | 0.88 | 0.60 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 81.0 | ||
| 3Southampton | 13.45 | 18.53 | 16.03 | 13.21 | 10.35 | 8.22 | 6.09 | 4.40 | 3.29 | 2.38 | 1.36 | 1.09 | 0.61 | 0.40 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 80.7 | ||
| 4Wrexham | 4.90 | 9.05 | 11.01 | 11.27 | 11.36 | 10.42 | 9.44 | 8.29 | 6.68 | 5.20 | 3.81 | 2.65 | 2.05 | 1.40 | 0.85 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 75.5 |
| 5Middlesbrough | 4.08 | 8.17 | 10.51 | 11.37 | 11.28 | 10.52 | 9.56 | 8.29 | 6.89 | 5.50 | 4.20 | 3.01 | 2.21 | 1.49 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 75.0 |
| 6Millwall | 3.76 | 7.81 | 9.74 | 10.45 | 11.05 | 10.27 | 9.97 | 8.59 | 7.39 | 5.80 | 4.59 | 3.20 | 2.42 | 1.71 | 1.06 | 0.75 | 0.53 | 0.42 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 74.5 |
| 7Norwich | 3.30 | 6.62 | 8.35 | 9.94 | 9.73 | 10.34 | 10.04 | 9.43 | 7.92 | 6.09 | 5.00 | 3.94 | 2.92 | 2.09 | 1.40 | 0.97 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 73.5 |
| 8Burnley | 1.69 | 4.32 | 6.62 | 7.38 | 8.90 | 9.64 | 9.68 | 9.69 | 8.88 | 7.93 | 6.67 | 5.04 | 3.77 | 3.05 | 2.21 | 1.60 | 1.03 | 0.68 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 71.3 |
| 9Lincoln | 0.89 | 2.60 | 4.14 | 5.79 | 7.39 | 7.85 | 8.91 | 9.57 | 9.78 | 8.91 | 7.88 | 6.67 | 5.24 | 3.92 | 3.14 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 1.29 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 69.1 |
| 10Swansea | 0.69 | 1.93 | 3.07 | 4.28 | 5.78 | 6.88 | 7.97 | 8.85 | 9.11 | 9.21 | 8.38 | 7.38 | 5.93 | 5.10 | 4.04 | 3.07 | 2.44 | 1.92 | 1.52 | 1.03 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 67.3 |
| 11Birmingham | 0.40 | 1.25 | 2.07 | 3.09 | 4.30 | 5.52 | 6.78 | 7.43 | 8.49 | 9.14 | 9.36 | 8.43 | 7.12 | 6.24 | 4.97 | 4.02 | 3.50 | 2.33 | 1.94 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.14 | 65.5 |
| 12Sheffield Utd | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.65 | 0.99 | 1.64 | 2.45 | 3.43 | 4.49 | 5.53 | 6.96 | 7.67 | 8.20 | 8.42 | 7.91 | 7.49 | 6.88 | 5.86 | 5.02 | 4.53 | 3.69 | 3.12 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 60.3 |
| 13Derby | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.52 | 0.80 | 1.29 | 2.17 | 2.79 | 3.96 | 5.01 | 6.24 | 7.44 | 8.09 | 8.58 | 8.14 | 7.79 | 7.09 | 6.36 | 5.58 | 4.59 | 4.42 | 3.40 | 2.67 | 1.79 | 1.03 | 59.5 |
| 14Cardiff | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 0.46 | 0.80 | 1.12 | 1.73 | 2.57 | 3.59 | 4.39 | 5.49 | 6.58 | 7.45 | 8.43 | 7.93 | 7.97 | 7.23 | 7.02 | 6.41 | 5.73 | 5.03 | 4.41 | 3.23 | 2.11 | 56.9 |
| 15QPR | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 0.60 | 1.01 | 1.54 | 1.99 | 2.94 | 3.96 | 4.76 | 5.93 | 6.58 | 7.36 | 7.61 | 8.13 | 7.58 | 7.21 | 6.89 | 6.54 | 6.14 | 5.41 | 4.20 | 3.01 | 55.8 |
| 16Charlton | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 1.58 | 2.15 | 3.08 | 3.87 | 4.95 | 6.03 | 6.60 | 7.44 | 7.83 | 8.12 | 7.83 | 8.00 | 7.60 | 7.17 | 6.04 | 5.63 | 3.94 | 54.2 | |
| 17Portsmouth | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.65 | 0.95 | 1.40 | 2.16 | 2.83 | 3.90 | 4.98 | 5.85 | 6.65 | 6.95 | 7.99 | 7.99 | 8.30 | 8.18 | 7.46 | 7.32 | 6.26 | 5.52 | 4.04 | 54.1 |
| 18Bristol City | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.47 | 0.86 | 1.26 | 1.93 | 2.67 | 3.45 | 4.61 | 5.49 | 6.25 | 7.27 | 7.41 | 7.74 | 8.15 | 8.64 | 7.78 | 7.59 | 7.18 | 6.09 | 4.66 | 53.5 | |
| 19Stoke City | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.56 | 0.79 | 1.06 | 1.63 | 2.33 | 3.38 | 4.35 | 5.25 | 5.83 | 7.01 | 7.11 | 8.08 | 8.15 | 8.18 | 8.43 | 8.08 | 7.75 | 6.75 | 4.93 | 53.0 |
| 20Preston | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 1.18 | 1.71 | 2.56 | 3.47 | 4.20 | 4.97 | 6.02 | 6.66 | 7.74 | 8.18 | 8.62 | 8.98 | 8.93 | 9.09 | 8.51 | 7.51 | 51.4 | |
| 21West Brom | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.44 | 0.84 | 1.32 | 1.93 | 2.58 | 3.42 | 4.33 | 5.16 | 6.11 | 7.11 | 8.01 | 8.80 | 9.50 | 9.45 | 10.31 | 10.64 | 9.46 | 50.1 | ||
| 22Blackburn | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.53 | 0.98 | 1.33 | 1.87 | 2.84 | 3.49 | 4.61 | 5.49 | 6.23 | 7.56 | 8.01 | 9.26 | 10.52 | 11.86 | 12.21 | 12.42 | 48.8 | |
| 23Bolton | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0.46 | 0.66 | 1.09 | 1.55 | 2.15 | 2.99 | 3.67 | 4.80 | 5.44 | 6.68 | 8.42 | 10.28 | 12.49 | 16.30 | 22.39 | 46.0 | |||
| 24Watford | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.73 | 0.94 | 1.43 | 2.04 | 2.67 | 3.43 | 4.30 | 5.81 | 6.67 | 8.14 | 10.37 | 12.71 | 16.58 | 23.31 | 45.6 |
How it's built. Every one of the 552 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.