Where the model has them
The model has Norwich finishing around 6th place this season, with a 2.60% chance of winning the title, a 19.07% chance of securing a top-four spot, and a 1.23% risk of relegation. This projection is driven by Norwich's attack and defence strength, as well as their Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier stands at 1.13, indicating a stronger-than-average attack. Meanwhile, the defence strength multiplier is 0.99, which is just about average, showing a solid but not exceptional defensive unit. Their attacking Elo is 1545, and their defensive Elo is 1565, both of which contribute to this balanced yet slightly attack-leaning profile.
In attack
Norwich's attack is looking sharper this season, with an attack strength multiplier of 1.13. Key to this is the addition of Mohamed Touré, who banged in 13 goals last season. Jovon Makama chipped in with 10 goals in 28 appearances, accounting for 32% of the games. Ali Ahmed leads in shot volume with 17 shots in 18 appearances, showing up in 72% of games. Edmond-Paris Maghoma, though only playing in 23% of games, provided 3 assists in those 13 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Touré with 13 goals and 5 assists, Makama with 10 goals, and Andre Brooks with 6 goals and 2 assists. This attacking lineup gives Norwich a solid edge in the final third.
In defence
On the defensive side, Norwich holds a strength multiplier of 0.99, which is right around the league average. The defensive-actions leaders are Pelle Mattsson with 4.04 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Kellen Fisher with 3.89, and Jack Stacey with 3.75. Mattsson also won 86 tackles in 39 appearances, showing up in 87% of games. This defensive setup is solid but not outstanding, which balances out their slightly above-average attack.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged Norwich's numbers. The arrival of Mohamed Touré boosted the attack multiplier from 1.06 to 1.13. On the defensive end, Andre Brooks came in and maintained the defence multiplier at 0.99. Notable departures include Josh Sargent, who scored 7 goals last season, and Mirko Topić in defence. These changes have fine-tuned the squad without drastically altering the overall balance.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn’t flag any specific weaknesses for Norwich this season. The main risk to their projection lies in maintaining consistency across both attack and defence throughout the season. Given their balanced profile, any significant dip in form in either area could impact their finish. But as it stands, the data suggests Norwich are well-positioned for a strong campaign in the Championship.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Jovon Makama | 10 | 0.36 | 32% |
| Assists | Edmond-Paris Maghoma | 3 | 0.23 | 23% |
| Shots | Ali Ahmed | 17 | 0.94 | 72% |
| Tackles won | Pelle Mattsson | 86 | 2.21 | 87% |
| Fouls drawn | Pelle Mattsson | 73 | 1.87 | 87% |
| Fouls committed | Pelle Mattsson | 62 | 1.59 | 74% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Pelle Mattsson | 4.04 | 39 |
| Kellen Fisher | 3.89 | 42 |
| Jack Stacey | 3.75 | 35 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Mohamed Touré (13g), out Josh Sargent (7g)
- Defence: in Andre Brooks (84 def actions), out Mirko Topić
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._