Where the model has them
The model sees Burnley finishing around 1st this season, with a 24.93% chance of winning the title and a 68.14% chance of finishing in the top four. Relegation? Forget it. The model gives them just a 0.03% chance of dropping down, and projects them to collect 81.2 points. That’s driven by an attack strength multiplier of 1.33 (league average is 1.00, so this is above average) and a defence multiplier of 0.86 (lower means stronger, so this is a solid defence). Their attacking Elo of 1576 and defending Elo of 1624 reflect their step down from the tier above, not a promotion.
In attack
Burnley’s attack looks sharp, with a strength multiplier of 1.33. Zian Flemming was the main man last season, banging in 11 goals in 28 appearances, which is 36% of their games. He also took 35 shots in those 28 games, accounting for 68% of their shot volume. Marcus Edwards chipped in with 3 assists in 22 appearances (14% of games). The top scorers in the squad are Flemming with 11 goals, Andreas Hountondji with 4, and Jaydon Banel with 3.
In defence
On the defensive side, Burnley’s multiplier is 0.86, which is below the league average, indicating a solid defence. Florentino Luís leads the way with 92 tackles won in 33 appearances (79% of games). The defensive-actions leaders per 90 minutes are Luís with 6.2, Luca Koleosho with 4.52, and Josh Laurent with 4.19.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model’s numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 1.22 to 1.33, thanks in part to the arrival of Andreas Hountondji, who scored 4 goals last season. They lost Jaidon Anthony, who contributed 8 goals. Defensively, the arrival of Shurandy Sambo, who had 64 defensive actions last season, nudged the defence multiplier from 0.85 to 0.86. Maxime Estève departed, but the defence remains solid.
Weaknesses and risks
The model flags two main weaknesses. First, Burnley lacked a proven high-volume scorer last season, with their best being Zian Flemming’s 11 goals. Second, they’ve been relegated into this division, so the squad may yet be broken up, and the model has no record of them at this level. These factors could pose risks to the projection, especially if key players underperform or leave mid-season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Zian Flemming | 11 | 0.39 | 36% |
| Assists | Marcus Edwards | 3 | 0.14 | 14% |
| Shots | Zian Flemming | 35 | 1.25 | 68% |
| Tackles won | Florentino Luís | 92 | 2.79 | 79% |
| Fouls drawn | Hannibal Mejbri | 47 | 1.74 | 78% |
| Fouls committed | Florentino Luís | 44 | 1.33 | 76% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Florentino Luís | 6.2 | 33 |
| Luca Koleosho | 4.52 | 18 |
| Josh Laurent | 4.19 | 33 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Andreas Hountondji (4g), out Jaidon Anthony (8g)
- Defence: in Shurandy Sambo (64 def actions), out Maxime Estève
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._