Where the model has them
The model has Watford finishing around 24th in the Championship this season. There's a 0.01% chance of them taking the title and only a 0.22% shot at the top four. The real danger lies at the bottom, with a 41.24% chance of relegation. The model projects them to pick up 49.4 points. This downbeat forecast is driven by their below-average attack and only slightly-above-average defence. Their attack strength multiplier sits at 0.82 (1.00 is the league average, anything below indicates a weaker attack) whilst their defence multiplier is 1.15 (1.00 is average, higher numbers mean a weaker defence). Their attacking Elo rating of 1482 and defending Elo of 1530 further reflect these trends.
In attack
Watford's attack is projected as below average, and the numbers back this up. Their attack strength multiplier of 0.82 indicates they're weaker than the league norm up front. Imrân Louza led the way last season with 7 goals in 41 appearances, but that's a meagre return. He also supplied 9 assists, the most in the squad. Luca Kjerrumgaard fired off 52 shots in 42 games but only managed 9 goals. The top scorers in the squad are Kjerrumgaard (9g/1a), Louza (7g/9a) and Mamadou Doumbia (5g/0a). None of these strike rates scream 'proven goal threat'.
In defence
On the defensive side, Watford's defence multiplier of 1.15 suggests they're slightly worse than the average Championship side at keeping the ball out of their own net. Jeremy Ngakia led the way with 116 tackles won in 33 appearances, a solid return. Edoardo Bove and Travis Akomeah also chipped in with 4.23 and 3.32 defensive actions per 90 minutes respectively. But this defensive effort hasn't translated into a rock-solid backline.
What the window changed
The summer window saw some changes but nothing game-changing. The arrival of Haktab Omar Traore, who managed 0 goals last season but 39 defensive actions, nudged the attack multiplier down slightly from 0.85 to 0.82 and the defence multiplier up a smidgen from 1.14 to 1.15. Vivaldo, who scored 4 goals last term, left the club. James Abankwah also departed, but his absence doesn't seem to have significantly weakened the defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Watford centre around their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. Their defence, whilst not terrible, is also rated as slightly worse than the Championship norm. These factors, combined with the relatively minor impact of the summer window, paint a grim picture for their survival chances this season. The 41.24% chance of relegation is a stark warning of the risks ahead.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Imrân Louza | 7 | 0.17 | 17% |
| Assists | Imrân Louza | 9 | 0.22 | 20% |
| Shots | Luca Kjerrumgaard | 52 | 1.24 | 74% |
| Tackles won | Jeremy Ngakia | 116 | 3.52 | 94% |
| Fouls drawn | Hector Kyprianou | 32 | 1.28 | 76% |
| Fouls committed | Hector Kyprianou | 32 | 1.28 | 72% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Ngakia | 5.48 | 33 |
| Edoardo Bove | 4.23 | 11 |
| Travis Akomeah | 3.32 | 13 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Haktab Omar Traore (0g), out Vivaldo (4g)
- Defence: in Haktab Omar Traore (39 def actions), out James Abankwah
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._