Ligue 2 2026/27 Model Projection After Matchweek 7

The model makes Saint Etienne the title favourite, first in 50.6% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of Reims on 28.7% and RED Star FC 93 on 6.3%. On expected points that is Saint Etienne 64.2, Reims 60.7, RED Star FC 93 53.7. Two clubs finish in the top four more often than not: Saint Etienne 90.4%, Reims 81.5%.

At the other end, Laval carries the highest relegation risk at 58.9%, then Boulogne on 48.6% and Clermont Foot on 42.0%. The bottom club averages 34.3 points to Saint Etienne's 64.2.

Right, so here's the deal. This simulation gives you a spread of possible outcomes, not a single, fixed answer. It's like getting a feel for the odds, not a guarantee. Useful, yes. It shows you the range of where a club might end up, which is handy for spotting value in your accas or bet builders. But remember, it's blind to the chaos of an actual season. Injuries, fixture piles, managerial sackings – it doesn't know any of that. So, take it as a guide, a way to see the lay of the land since August, but always with a pinch of salt. It's there to inform your selections, not to make them for you.

What has changed since August

The pre-season projection was run before a ball was kicked. 63 matches later, these are the clubs the model has most changed its mind about. Movement is in expected finishing position, which is measured against the rest of the division, so it reflects a changed view rather than simply games being played.

Rising

Nancy up 3.3 places, expected points 37.5 to 44.0. 10 points from 7 games. Relegation risk down from 41.1% to 13.8%.
RED Star FC 93 up 2.9 places, expected points 48.3 to 53.7. 14 points from 7 games. Title chance up from 3.6% to 6.3%. Relegation risk down from 6.7% to 1.1%.
Saint Etienne up 2.7 places, expected points 56.4 to 64.2. 16 points from 7 games. Title chance up from 18.8% to 50.6%. Relegation risk down from 1.0% to 0.0%.
Montpellier up 1.7 places, expected points 47.4 to 50.0. 12 points from 7 games. Relegation risk down from 7.0% to 2.5%.
Reims up 1.1 places, expected points 58.6 to 60.7. 13 points from 7 games. Title chance up from 26.1% to 28.7%. Relegation risk down from 0.5% to 0.1%.

Falling

Nantes down 2.9 places, expected points 53.6 to 46.7. 7 points from 7 games. Title chance down from 10.5% to 1.2%. Relegation risk up from 1.8% to 7.1%.
Rodez down 2.7 places, expected points 51.9 to 45.6. 7 points from 7 games. Title chance down from 8.1% to 1.1%. Relegation risk up from 3.2% to 10.4%.
Sochaux down 2.5 places, expected points 49.3 to 43.9. 10 points from 7 games. Title chance down from 4.5% to 0.3%. Relegation risk up from 5.5% to 13.1%.
Dijon down 2.1 places, expected points 49.3 to 44.5. 9 points from 7 games. Title chance down from 4.5% to 0.6%. Relegation risk up from 5.5% to 12.4%.
Dunkerque down 1.5 places, expected points 48.2 to 44.5. 8 points from 7 games. Title chance down from 3.6% to 0.6%. Relegation risk up from 7.1% to 12.4%.

Compare with the full pre-season table, exactly as the model had it in August.

Every club, every finishing position

Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	xPts
Saint Etienne	50.58	23.01	10.88	5.90	3.60	2.24	1.52	0.81	0.50	0.37	0.26	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01		64.2
Reims	28.69	28.03	15.63	9.19	6.20	3.65	2.46	2.15	1.48	0.95	0.57	0.44	0.25	0.16	0.08	0.05	0.02		60.7
RED Star FC 93	6.30	12.46	14.74	13.15	11.40	9.18	7.27	6.11	4.88	3.77	3.09	2.55	1.92	1.29	0.80	0.69	0.29	0.10	53.7
Metz	4.49	9.34	12.19	11.98	10.41	9.06	7.64	6.88	5.73	4.96	4.20	3.57	2.83	2.32	1.83	1.40	0.80	0.37	51.4
Montpellier	2.18	5.83	9.32	10.37	10.46	9.88	9.74	8.14	7.03	6.30	5.46	4.30	3.55	2.82	2.14	1.46	0.75	0.28	50.0
Annecy	2.74	6.16	9.29	10.15	9.77	9.49	8.57	8.12	6.64	5.97	5.29	4.74	3.96	2.91	2.59	1.74	1.23	0.64	49.7
Nantes	1.22	3.23	5.33	6.94	7.50	8.34	8.24	8.06	8.00	7.70	6.81	6.46	5.81	5.12	4.15	3.30	2.48	1.30	46.7
Rodez	1.06	2.74	4.61	5.75	6.78	7.16	7.96	7.77	7.58	7.55	6.83	6.88	6.22	5.68	5.02	4.54	3.50	2.37	45.6
Dijon	0.60	1.86	3.70	5.03	5.70	6.75	7.11	6.93	7.32	7.99	7.48	7.51	6.93	6.61	6.12	5.27	4.33	2.78	44.5
Dunkerque	0.63	2.00	3.42	4.91	5.85	6.53	7.32	7.40	7.31	7.32	7.34	7.47	7.11	6.98	6.00	5.27	4.44	2.71	44.5
Nancy	0.50	1.65	3.00	4.13	5.23	6.12	6.64	7.02	7.90	7.65	8.00	7.30	7.32	7.13	6.59	5.90	4.52	3.38	44.0
Sochaux	0.34	1.33	2.79	3.98	5.14	5.73	6.56	7.24	7.76	7.98	8.10	7.76	7.56	7.74	6.91	5.83	4.58	2.67	43.9
Grenoble	0.22	0.80	1.62	2.68	3.72	4.53	5.10	5.98	6.68	7.35	7.86	8.20	8.43	8.41	8.67	7.86	6.94	4.93	41.9
PAU	0.24	0.70	1.41	2.33	3.16	4.10	4.52	5.21	6.24	6.64	7.30	7.94	8.37	8.89	8.64	8.62	8.64	7.04	40.9
Guingamp	0.11	0.52	1.31	2.04	2.79	3.67	4.20	5.10	6.00	6.28	6.88	7.93	8.43	8.18	9.11	9.39	9.42	8.63	40.4
Clermont Foot	0.04	0.14	0.33	0.69	0.99	1.58	2.36	2.99	3.67	4.39	5.64	6.65	8.15	9.44	10.96	12.63	14.49	14.84	37.0
Boulogne	0.02	0.11	0.25	0.49	0.82	1.11	1.69	2.44	3.08	3.93	4.95	5.80	7.16	8.73	10.84	13.46	16.13	19.02	35.9
Laval	0.01	0.07	0.18	0.27	0.48	0.89	1.09	1.66	2.22	2.93	3.92	4.37	5.92	7.56	9.52	12.56	17.42	28.93	34.3

Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons. Club names link to that club's full model profile.

View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.

How it's built

The table above is where the division actually stands after 63 matches, finished off 20,000 times over. Points already won are treated as certain, and only the 243 fixtures left to play are simulated, from each club's attacking and defending strength: a blend of shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and how the club has actually played this season, the last of those counting for more the longer the season runs. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. It knows nothing about upcoming fixture difficulty, injuries or suspensions.

_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._