Where the model has them
The model has Metz finishing around 2nd this season. There's a 9.34% chance they win the title, a 37.69% shot at the top four, and a 3.32% risk of relegation. They're expected to rack up 52.3 points. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, and their Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier is 1.38 (1.00 is the league average, higher means a stronger attack), whilst their defence multiplier is 1.17 (1.00 is average, lower means a stronger defence that concedes fewer). Their attacking Elo is 1531 and their defending Elo is 1523. Remember, they've been relegated into this division from the tier above, not promoted.
In attack
Metz's attack strength multiplier of 1.38 shows they're expected to be stronger than average up front. Key to this is Pape Moussa Fall, who banged in 11 goals last season in 26 appearances (35% of games). He also had 48 shots, appearing in 81% of games. Gauthier Hein chipped in with 6 assists in 28 games (21% of games). The top scorers in the squad last season were Pape Moussa Fall with 11 goals and 1 assist, Gauthier Hein with 8 goals and 6 assists, and Habib Diallo with 4 goals and 1 assist.
In defence
Their defence multiplier of 1.17 suggests they'll concede more than the average team. The defensive-actions leaders last season were Nampalys Mendy with 4.28 per 90, Bouna Sarr with 4.13 per 90, and Maxime Colin with 4.06 per 90. Bouna Sarr won 22 tackles in just 11 appearances (82% of games). This defence isn't a strength, but it's not a gaping hole either.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. Pape Moussa Fall, who scored 11 goals last season, boosted the attack multiplier from 1.24 to 1.38. On the defensive side, the arrival of Florian Miguel, who had 118 defensive actions last season, moved the defence multiplier from 1.06 to 1.17. Notable departures were Georgiy Tsitaishvili, who scored 2 goals, and Koffi Kouao in defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model sees a couple of weaknesses that could affect Metz's projection. They don't have a proven high-volume scorer from last season (the best was Pape Moussa Fall with 11 goals). Their defence is rated leakier than average (defence multiplier of 1.17, where higher is worse). And, because they've been relegated into this division, the squad may yet be broken up, and the model has no record of them at this level. These factors are the main risks to their projected finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Pape Moussa Fall | 11 | 0.42 | 35% |
| Assists | Gauthier Hein | 6 | 0.21 | 21% |
| Shots | Pape Moussa Fall | 48 | 1.85 | 81% |
| Tackles won | Bouna Sarr | 22 | 2 | 82% |
| Fouls drawn | Bouna Sarr | 17 | 1.55 | 82% |
| Fouls committed | Bouna Sarr | 10 | 0.91 | 73% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Nampalys Mendy | 4.28 | 24 |
| Bouna Sarr | 4.13 | 11 |
| Maxime Colin | 4.06 | 21 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Pape Moussa Fall (11g), out Georgiy Tsitaishvili (2g)
- Defence: in Florian Miguel (118 def actions), out Koffi Kouao
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._