Where the model has them
The model has Grenoble finishing around 15th in the table. The numbers show a 0.42% chance of winning the league, a 4.68% chance of making the top four, and a 24.78% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 40.9. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength, along with the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 0.79 (1.00 being the league average, with higher numbers indicating a stronger attack). The defence multiplier is 0.94 (1.00 being average, with lower numbers indicating a stronger defence). The attacking Elo is 1435, whilst the defending Elo is 1536.
In attack
Grenoble's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.79. Last season, Yadaly Diaby led the team with 9 goals in 32 appearances, though that's not a high-volume scoring record. Mael Corboz chipped in with 4 assists in 33 appearances. Diaby also had the highest shot volume with 45 shots in 32 games. The top scorers in the squad are Diaby with 9 goals and 1 assist, Corboz with 3 goals and 4 assists, and Evans Fabrice Maurin with 3 goals. The model sees this attack as a weak point, lacking a proven high-volume scorer.
In defence
Defensively, Grenoble is slightly above average with a defence strength multiplier of 0.94. The leaders in defensive actions (tackles, interceptions, blocks per 90 minutes) are Lucas Bernadou with 4.73, Mattheo Xantippe with 3.93, and Mathieu Mion with 3.84. Xantippe won 68 tackles in 30 appearances, showing strong defensive presence. This area is seen as a relative strength compared to their attack.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some changes that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 0.76 to 0.79, and the defence multiplier from 0.96 to 0.94. Mael Corboz arrived and contributed both in attack (3 goals last season) and defence (86 defensive actions). The notable departure was Jessy Benet, who scored 7 goals and was involved in defensive actions. These changes were marginal, but they did provide a slight boost to both attack and defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Grenoble's projection revolve around their attack. The model highlights the lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. This, combined with a slightly above-average defence, paints a picture of a team that might struggle to score enough goals to climb the table, hence the projection around mid-table and a notable relegation risk.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Yadaly Diaby | 9 | 0.28 | 28% |
| Assists | Mael Corboz | 4 | 0.12 | 12% |
| Shots | Yadaly Diaby | 45 | 1.41 | 78% |
| Tackles won | Mattheo Xantippe | 68 | 2.27 | 93% |
| Fouls drawn | Yadaly Diaby | 43 | 1.34 | 81% |
| Fouls committed | Mattheo Xantippe | 34 | 1.13 | 73% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Bernadou | 4.73 | 14 |
| Mattheo Xantippe | 3.93 | 30 |
| Mathieu Mion | 3.84 | 24 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Mael Corboz (3g), out Jessy Benet (7g)
- Defence: in Mael Corboz (86 def actions), out Jessy Benet
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._