Where the model has them
Reims are projected to finish around 1st this season, with a 26.13% chance of winning the title and a 65.81% likelihood of securing a top-four spot. Relegation? Forget about it at 0.48%. They're tipped for 58.6 expected points. This rosy outlook is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their multipliers and Elo ratings. Their attack multiplier stands at 1.26, showing they're 26% stronger than the league average. Their defence multiplier is 0.85, indicating they're 15% better at keeping the ball out of the net than the average side. Their attacking Elo is 1501, whilst their defensive Elo is 1603. These numbers paint a clear picture: Reims are set up to score goals and concede few.
In attack
Reims' attack is firing on all cylinders with an impressive strength multiplier of 1.26. Keito Nakamura is the main man up front, banging in 14 goals in 28 appearances last season, contributing to 36% of their games. His shot volume is equally impressive with 61 shots in 28 games, showing he's a constant threat. Theo Leoni chipped in with 7 assists in 29 games, proving he's a key creator. Alongside Nakamura, Hafiz Umar Ibrahim and Ange Tia offer solid backup with 6 and 5 goals respectively. This attacking lineup, bolstered by a strong multiplier, makes Reims a force to be reckoned with going forward.
In defence
On the defensive end, Reims hold a 0.85 strength multiplier, indicating a solid backline. Yaya Fofana leads the way with 5.17 defensive actions per 90 minutes, a number that screams reliability. Newcomer Daouda Guindo, with 3.97 defensive actions per 90, and Theo Leoni, with 3.72, add layers of security. Their defensive Elo of 1603 further cements their status as a tough nut to crack. This defensive solidity, combined with their attacking prowess, sets Reims up nicely for the season ahead.
What the window changed
The summer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers in Reims' favour. Attack-wise, the arrival of Sambou Soumano, who netted 4 goals last season, bumped up their attack multiplier from 1.13 to 1.26. Defensively, Daouda Guindo's addition, with his 75 defensive actions, improved their defence multiplier from 0.79 to 0.85. The departures of Teddy Teuma (4 goals) and Abdoul Kone didn't significantly dent their overall strength. These moves have fine-tuned Reims' squad, making them even more formidable.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn't flag any glaring weaknesses for Reims this season. Their balanced attack and defence, coupled with key summer signings, position them strongly for the Ligue 2 campaign. The main risk to their projection lies in maintaining this form throughout the season, especially with the physical and mental demands that come with a title challenge. But, based on the numbers, Reims look primed to have a stellar season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Keito Nakamura | 14 | 0.5 | 36% |
| Assists | Theo Leoni | 7 | 0.24 | 24% |
| Shots | Keito Nakamura | 61 | 2.18 | 96% |
| Tackles won | Theo Leoni | 58 | 2 | 83% |
| Fouls drawn | Theo Leoni | 42 | 1.45 | 83% |
| Fouls committed | Quentin Paris | 37 | 1.76 | 81% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Yaya Fofana | 5.17 | 8 |
| Daouda Guindo | 3.97 | 25 |
| Theo Leoni | 3.72 | 29 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Sambou Soumano (4g), out Teddy Teuma (4g)
- Defence: in Daouda Guindo (75 def actions), out Abdoul Kone
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._