Where the model has them
The model has PAU finishing around 18th, with a 0.40% chance of winning the title, a 3.92% chance of breaking into the top four, and a worrying 33.70% chance of relegation. This outcome is driven by the club's attack and defence strength, reflected in the attack multiplier of 1.1 (league average is 1.00) and the defence multiplier of 1.38 (lower than 1.00 indicates a stronger defence). PAU's attacking Elo stands at 1509, whilst their defensive Elo is 1448. These numbers suggest a club that can put the ball in the net at a slightly above-average rate, but concedes more often than most.
In attack
PAU's attack is just above average, as shown by the attack multiplier of 1.1. Giovani Versini was the standout player last season, scoring 6 goals in 21 appearances, which accounted for 29% of PAU's total goals. He also led in shot volume with 24 shots in 21 games. Jessy Benet, with 7 goals and 2 assists, and Hacene Benali, with 5 goals, are the other key attacking players. But let's be clear: PAU doesn't have a proven high-volume scorer. Benet's 7 goals last season were the best in the squad. This lack of a potent goal threat is a factor in the model's cautious outlook.
In defence
Defensively, PAU is slightly below average, as indicated by the defence multiplier of 1.38. Jessy Benet leads the way here, too, with 56 tackles won in 28 appearances, a testament to his work rate. Gaëtan Paquiez and Hacene Benali also stand out in defensive actions, with 3.75 and 3.36 actions per 90 minutes, respectively. But the defence multiplier shows that PAU is still more porous than the league average, a vulnerability the model has baked into the projections.
What the window changed
The summer window saw Jessy Benet arrive, bolstering both attack and defence. His 7 goals and 107 defensive actions last season are exactly what PAU needed. On the flip side, Antonin Bobichon's 6 goals and Rayan Touzghar's defensive contributions are missed. The net effect was a slight improvement in the defence multiplier from 1.46 to 1.38, whilst the attack multiplier stayed static at 1.1. The window brought marginal gains, not game-changing shifts.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for PAU revolve around their lack of a high-volume scorer and a defence that, whilst improved, still ranks below average. These factors, combined with an expected points total of just 39.2, point to a season where PAU will struggle to climb the table and face a real threat of relegation. The numbers show a club treading water, not one poised for a surge.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Giovani Versini | 6 | 0.29 | 29% |
| Assists | Giovani Versini | 2 | 0.1 | 10% |
| Shots | Giovani Versini | 24 | 1.14 | 71% |
| Tackles won | Jessy Benet | 56 | 2 | 89% |
| Fouls drawn | Giovani Versini | 29 | 1.38 | 76% |
| Fouls committed | Gaëtan Paquiez | 48 | 1.66 | 76% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Jessy Benet | 4.05 | 28 |
| Gaëtan Paquiez | 3.75 | 29 |
| Hacene Benali | 3.36 | 27 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Jessy Benet (7g), out Antonin Bobichon (6g)
- Defence: in Jessy Benet (107 def actions), out Rayan Touzghar
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._