Where the model has them
Clermont Foot are projected to finish around 18th, with a 0.15% chance of winning the title, a 2.14% shot at the top four, and a 37.55% chance of relegation. The expected points tally sits at 38.0. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their multipliers. The attack strength multiplier is 0.73 (league average is 1.00, with higher numbers indicating a stronger attack), and the defence multiplier is 0.97 (lower numbers signify a stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1442, and their defending Elo is 1527.
In attack
Clermont's attack is below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.73. Their key attacking player last season was Adrien Hunou, who scored 2 goals in 17 appearances, accounting for 12% of their games. Ibrahim Coulibaly provided 1 assist in 14 appearances, contributing to 7% of their games. Abdellah Baallal led in shot volume with 21 shots in 26 appearances, featuring in 54% of games. The top scorers in the squad were Hunou with 2 goals and 0 assists, Ivan M'Bahia with 1 goal and 0 assists, and Yoann Salmier with 1 goal and 1 assist. With no proven high-volume scorer last season, the attack looks shaky.
In defence
Defensively, Clermont's strength multiplier is 0.97, indicating a solid but not exceptional defence. The defensive-actions leaders were Allan Ackra with 5.04 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Baallal with 3.67 per 90, and M'Bahia with 3.54 per 90. Cheick Konaté led in tackles won with 61 in 33 appearances, playing in 79% of games. This suggests a competent defence, though not one likely to propel them up the table.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw a shift in Clermont's attack and defence multipliers. The attack multiplier moved from 0.83 to 0.73, and the defence from 1.04 to 0.97. Cheick Konaté arrived, bringing defensive actions (89) but no goals last season. The notable departure was Famara Diédhiou, who scored 10 goals last season. This net loss in attacking output is reflected in the model's lowered attack multiplier.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Clermont's projection revolve around their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. Losing a significant goal contributor like Diédhiou without a comparable replacement heightens these risks. Their defence, whilst solid, isn't enough to offset the attacking deficiencies. This combination points to a tough season ahead, with relegation a real possibility.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Adrien Hunou | 2 | 0.12 | 12% |
| Assists | Ibrahim Coulibaly | 1 | 0.07 | 7% |
| Shots | Abdellah Baallal | 21 | 0.81 | 54% |
| Tackles won | Cheick Konaté | 61 | 1.85 | 79% |
| Fouls drawn | Allan Ackra | 27 | 1.5 | 72% |
| Fouls committed | Allan Ackra | 26 | 1.44 | 72% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Allan Ackra | 5.04 | 18 |
| Abdellah Baallal | 3.67 | 26 |
| Ivan M'Bahia | 3.54 | 27 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Cheick Konaté (0g), out Famara Diédhiou (10g)
- Defence: in Cheick Konaté (89 def actions), out Henri Saivet
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._