Monte Carlo · after matchweek 7 · 20,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: Ligue 2 2026–27
Published
63 of 306 matches played (through matchweek 7). Points already won are carried in as certain; only the 243 remaining fixtures are simulated. Compare with what the model said before a ball was kicked.
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 20,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | Pts | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Saint Etienne | 50.58 | 23.01 | 10.88 | 5.90 | 3.60 | 2.24 | 1.52 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 16 | 64.2 | |
| 2Reims | 28.69 | 28.03 | 15.63 | 9.19 | 6.20 | 3.65 | 2.46 | 2.15 | 1.48 | 0.95 | 0.57 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 13 | 60.7 | |
| 3RED Star FC 93 | 6.30 | 12.46 | 14.74 | 13.15 | 11.40 | 9.18 | 7.27 | 6.11 | 4.88 | 3.77 | 3.09 | 2.55 | 1.92 | 1.29 | 0.80 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 14 | 53.7 |
| 4Metz | 4.49 | 9.34 | 12.19 | 11.98 | 10.41 | 9.06 | 7.64 | 6.88 | 5.73 | 4.96 | 4.20 | 3.57 | 2.83 | 2.32 | 1.83 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 0.37 | 10 | 51.4 |
| 5Montpellier | 2.18 | 5.83 | 9.32 | 10.37 | 10.46 | 9.88 | 9.74 | 8.14 | 7.03 | 6.30 | 5.46 | 4.30 | 3.55 | 2.82 | 2.14 | 1.46 | 0.75 | 0.28 | 12 | 50.0 |
| 6Annecy | 2.74 | 6.16 | 9.29 | 10.15 | 9.77 | 9.49 | 8.57 | 8.12 | 6.64 | 5.97 | 5.29 | 4.74 | 3.96 | 2.91 | 2.59 | 1.74 | 1.23 | 0.64 | 10 | 49.7 |
| 7Nantes | 1.22 | 3.23 | 5.33 | 6.94 | 7.50 | 8.34 | 8.24 | 8.06 | 8.00 | 7.70 | 6.81 | 6.46 | 5.81 | 5.12 | 4.15 | 3.30 | 2.48 | 1.30 | 7 | 46.7 |
| 8Rodez | 1.06 | 2.74 | 4.61 | 5.75 | 6.78 | 7.16 | 7.96 | 7.77 | 7.58 | 7.55 | 6.83 | 6.88 | 6.22 | 5.68 | 5.02 | 4.54 | 3.50 | 2.37 | 7 | 45.6 |
| 9Dijon | 0.60 | 1.86 | 3.70 | 5.03 | 5.70 | 6.75 | 7.11 | 6.93 | 7.32 | 7.99 | 7.48 | 7.51 | 6.93 | 6.61 | 6.12 | 5.27 | 4.33 | 2.78 | 9 | 44.5 |
| 10Dunkerque | 0.63 | 2.00 | 3.42 | 4.91 | 5.85 | 6.53 | 7.32 | 7.40 | 7.31 | 7.32 | 7.34 | 7.47 | 7.11 | 6.98 | 6.00 | 5.27 | 4.44 | 2.71 | 8 | 44.5 |
| 11Nancy | 0.50 | 1.65 | 3.00 | 4.13 | 5.23 | 6.12 | 6.64 | 7.02 | 7.90 | 7.65 | 8.00 | 7.30 | 7.32 | 7.13 | 6.59 | 5.90 | 4.52 | 3.38 | 10 | 44.0 |
| 12Sochaux | 0.34 | 1.33 | 2.79 | 3.98 | 5.14 | 5.73 | 6.56 | 7.24 | 7.76 | 7.98 | 8.10 | 7.76 | 7.56 | 7.74 | 6.91 | 5.83 | 4.58 | 2.67 | 10 | 43.9 |
| 13Grenoble | 0.22 | 0.80 | 1.62 | 2.68 | 3.72 | 4.53 | 5.10 | 5.98 | 6.68 | 7.35 | 7.86 | 8.20 | 8.43 | 8.41 | 8.67 | 7.86 | 6.94 | 4.93 | 8 | 41.9 |
| 14PAU | 0.24 | 0.70 | 1.41 | 2.33 | 3.16 | 4.10 | 4.52 | 5.21 | 6.24 | 6.64 | 7.30 | 7.94 | 8.37 | 8.89 | 8.64 | 8.62 | 8.64 | 7.04 | 8 | 40.9 |
| 15Guingamp | 0.11 | 0.52 | 1.31 | 2.04 | 2.79 | 3.67 | 4.20 | 5.10 | 6.00 | 6.28 | 6.88 | 7.93 | 8.43 | 8.18 | 9.11 | 9.39 | 9.42 | 8.63 | 8 | 40.4 |
| 16Clermont Foot | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.69 | 0.99 | 1.58 | 2.36 | 2.99 | 3.67 | 4.39 | 5.64 | 6.65 | 8.15 | 9.44 | 10.96 | 12.63 | 14.49 | 14.84 | 6 | 37.0 |
| 17Boulogne | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 0.82 | 1.11 | 1.69 | 2.44 | 3.08 | 3.93 | 4.95 | 5.80 | 7.16 | 8.73 | 10.84 | 13.46 | 16.13 | 19.02 | 5 | 35.9 |
| 18Laval | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.48 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 1.66 | 2.22 | 2.93 | 3.92 | 4.37 | 5.92 | 7.56 | 9.52 | 12.56 | 17.42 | 28.93 | 5 | 34.3 |
How it's built. Every one of the 243 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Those are the fixtures still to be played: points already won are carried in as certain rather than re-simulated. Strengths blend shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and this season's results, with the current season carrying more weight the longer it goes on.