Where the model has them
The model sees Saint Etienne finishing around 1st this season, with an 18.76% chance of winning the title and a 56.07% chance of securing a top-four finish. Relegation? Only a 1.03% chance of that happening. They're expected to rack up 56.4 points, which would comfortably put them at the summit. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in the multipliers and their Elo ratings. Their attack multiplier stands at 1.32, meaning they're 32% stronger than the league average in attack. Their defence multiplier is 0.97, indicating a defence that's just slightly better than average. Their attacking Elo is 1529 and their defending Elo is 1550, both solid numbers.
In attack
Saint Etienne's attack is a force to be reckoned with. The 1.32 attack multiplier tells you that straight away. Key to this is Zuriko Davitashvili, who bagged 14 goals last season, contributing 36% of their goals. Irvin Cardona supplied 7 assists in 35 appearances, whilst Lucas Stassin fired off 62 shots in 33 games. Davitashvili also chipped in with 5 assists, and Stassin added 6 of his own. Cardona, with 7 goals and 7 assists, rounds out the top scorers. This attacking prowess is why the model sees them scoring goals aplenty.
In defence
Defensively, Saint Etienne holds up well, with a 0.97 defence multiplier showing they concede fewer goals than the average Ligue 2 side. Áron Csongvai leads the way in tackles won, with 33 in just 13 appearances. His defensive actions per 90 come in at a solid 4.61. Mahmoud Jaber isn't far behind with 4.52 per 90, and Kevin Pedro contributes 3.78 per 90. This defensive solidity complements their attacking strength, making them a well-rounded side.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier rose from 1.29 to 1.32, thanks in part to the arrival of Jakob Breum, who scored 6 goals last season. On the flip side, they lost Florian Tardieu, who contributed 4 goals. Defensively, the multiplier improved from 0.92 to 0.97 with the addition of Thierno Ballo, who racked up 55 defensive actions last season. Tardieu's departure also impacted the defence, but the net effect was positive.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn't flag any specific weaknesses for Saint Etienne. Their attack is strong, their defence is solid, and the transfer window bolstered both areas. The main risk to their projection would be injuries to key players like Davitashvili or Csongvai, which could disrupt the balance. But as it stands, the numbers paint a picture of a side well-equipped to challenge for the title.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Zuriko Davitashvili | 14 | 0.45 | 36% |
| Assists | Irvin Cardona | 7 | 0.2 | 20% |
| Shots | Lucas Stassin | 62 | 1.88 | 85% |
| Tackles won | Áron Csongvai | 33 | 2.54 | 100% |
| Fouls drawn | Sohaib Nair | 27 | 1.59 | 82% |
| Fouls committed | Mahmoud Jaber | 32 | 1.78 | 89% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Áron Csongvai | 4.61 | 13 |
| Mahmoud Jaber | 4.52 | 18 |
| Kevin Pedro | 3.78 | 20 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Jakob Breum (6g), out Florian Tardieu (4g)
- Defence: in Thierno Ballo (55 def actions), out Florian Tardieu
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._